金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20260120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost side, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - 主力合约情况: On January 20, the PTA main futures contract TA605 rose 2.14%, and the basis weakened to - 68 yuan/ton [2]. - 基本面情况: The market price of PTA in East China today is 5010 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Brent crude oil on the cost side fluctuates around 64 US dollars per barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 75.83% compared with the previous working day. A new material plant reduced its load for maintenance this week, and a Xin凤鸣 plant restarted. The weekly inventory days of PTA factories are 3.62 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 days [3]. - 主力动向: The long - position main force increased positions [3]. - 走势预期: The current PTA processing fee is at a high level, but there is no plan to further increase the load of PTA plants. The inventory of terminal weaving has accumulated. Attention should be paid to the situation of polyester factories taking early holidays before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the terminal demand will weaken before the end of January. The market is unanimously bullish on upstream PX, and it is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate at a high level following the cost side [3]. MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - 主力合约情况: On January 20, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 2.52%, and the basis strengthened to - 116 yuan/ton [4]. - 基本面情况: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 3595 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The coal price on the cost side is under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 73.6 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared with last Thursday [4]. - 主力动向: There is a divergence between the long and short main forces [4]. - 走势预期: The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still relatively high, coupled with high port inventories, resulting in relatively large supply pressure. There are maintenance plans for multiple overseas plants in the future, but it is expected that the downstream polyester operating rate will decline. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price will still oscillate at the bottom in the short term [4].