银河期货油脂日报-20260120

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Oil Daily [1] - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - Soybean Oil: The 2605 closing price was 8032, up 36. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8552, 8602, and 8422 respectively. The spot basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 570, 520, and 390 respectively, with no change [2]. - Palm Oil: The 2605 closing price was 8748, up 100. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8718, 8738, and 8878 respectively. The spot basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30, -10, and 130 respectively, with the latter two up 10 [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: The 2605 closing price was 8948, up 46. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9778, 9548. The spot basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 830 and 600 respectively, with no change [2]. Monthly Spread - Soybean Oil (5 - 9): The closing price was 124, up 4 [2]. - Palm Oil (5 - 9): The closing price was 32, up 6 [2]. - Rapeseed Oil (5 - 9): The closing price was -27, down 6 [2]. Cross - Variety Spread - Y - P (05 contract): The spread was -716, down 64 [2]. - OI - Y (05 contract): The spread was 916, up 10 [2]. - OI - P (05 contract): The spread was 200, down 54 [2]. - Oil - Meal Ratio: The ratio was 2.94, up 0.004 [2]. Import Profit - 24 - degree Palm Oil: The盘面 profit for Malaysia & Indonesia was -163, with a CNF price of 1068 for the 2 - month ship period [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: The盘面 profit for Rotterdam was -1338, with an FOB price of 1030 for the 2 - month ship period [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory (Week 3, 2026, in 10,000 tons) - Soybean Oil: This week's inventory was 74.6, last week was 96.3, and last year's same - period was 102.5 [2]. - Palm Oil: This week's inventory was 73.6, last week was 46.9 [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: This week's inventory was 27.5, last week was 25.1, and last year's same - period was 55.2 [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Indonesia postponed the B50 policy, facing challenges such as stabilizing the biodiesel fund, narrowing the cost gap between biodiesel and traditional diesel, and solving logistics, infrastructure, and operational preparation issues [4]. - Malaysia is in a more favorable position in crude palm oil exports due to lower export tariffs, while Indonesia's high export tax increases export costs and may limit price competitiveness [4]. Domestic Market (P/Y/OI) - Palm Oil: The futures price closed up more than 1% today. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 74.61 million tons, up 1.01 million tons from last week, a 1.37% increase. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around -200. The basis was stable. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Soybean Oil: The futures price closed slightly up. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 199.42 million tons, and the operating rate was 54.86%. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 96.33 million tons, down 6.18 million tons from last week, a 6.03% decrease. The basis was stable. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - Rapeseed Oil: The futures price closed slightly up. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 2.4 million tons. The import profit inversion has widened to around -1300. The short - term price of the near - month contract may have limited downside [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term oil prices are fluctuating, with many uncertainties and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10]. - Options: Wait and see [11]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the spot basis, monthly spread, cross - variety spread of different oils from 2017 - 2026 [13][16][19][23]