铁合金日报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 20, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5552, up 0.07% with an increase of 15,954 in open interest; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5760, down 0.83% with a decrease of 13,668 in open interest [5] - The valuation of ferroalloys is not high, and cost support is relatively strong. They can be considered as long - positions when the price is low. For arbitrage, it's recommended to wait and see, and for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Futures Market: - SF main contract: closed at 5552, daily change of 4, weekly change of - 130, trading volume of 148,515 (daily increase of 33,826), open interest of 229,601 (daily increase of 15,954) - SM main contract: closed at 5798, daily change of - 10, weekly change of - 118, trading volume of 140,554 (daily increase of 17,264), open interest of 215,166 (daily decrease of 13,668) [3] - Spot Market: - Silicon - iron: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5320, down 50 daily and 130 weekly; in Ningxia at 5320, unchanged daily and down 100 weekly; in Qinghai at 5300, down 50 daily and 50 weekly etc. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5680, down 20 daily and 70 weekly; in Ningxia at 5570, down 30 daily and 80 weekly etc. [3] - Basis/Spread: - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 232, daily change of - 54, weekly change of 0 etc. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 118, daily change of - 10, weekly change of 48 etc. - SF - SM spread was - 246, daily change of 14, weekly change of - 12 [3] - Raw Materials: - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 41.8, unchanged daily and down 0.2 weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36.2, down 0.1 daily, unchanged weekly etc. - Blue charcoal small materials: in Shaanxi it was 770, unchanged daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840, unchanged daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750, unchanged daily and weekly [3] 3.2 Market Judgement - Trading Strategy: - Silicon - iron: On the 20th, the spot price was stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 50 yuan/ton drop. In the short - term, the operating rate decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of future supply decline due to differential electricity prices in Shaanxi. Although there was an accidental production cut at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, the impact on the national scope was limited. Recently, both the apparent demand and production of steel increased, providing short - term support for raw material demand. The electricity price in the main production areas was stable to weak recently, and the cooling of the commodity market sentiment dragged down silicon - iron, but its valuation is not high, so it can be a long - position when the price is low [5] - Manganese - silicon: On the 20th, the manganese ore spot was stable to weak, with the semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port dropping 0.1 yuan/ton degree, and the manganese - silicon spot in some regions dropping 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities were put into operation at the end of 2025, so the overall supply was stable. Similar to silicon - iron, the apparent demand and production of steel increased, providing short - term support for raw material demand. The manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, the port spot was slightly adjusted but generally firm, and overseas mine quotes continued to rise. The valuation of manganese - silicon is not high, and the cost support is strong, so it can also be a long - position when the price is low [5] - Overall Strategy: For single - side trading, ferroalloys can be long - positions when the price is low; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6] - Important Information: - On the 20th, the price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port (Mn37.19%Fe4.32%) was 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump (Mn47%) was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, and Australian seed (Mn41.3%Fe 7.4%) was 38.5 yuan/ton degree [7] - In December 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 3.2742 million tons, a 21.53% increase from November and a 28.27% increase from December of the previous year [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The content mainly includes various charts such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of SF and SM, basis of SF and SM, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, electricity prices for ferroalloys, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][10][12][14][17]