半导体行业周报：台积电上调2026年资本开支，加速现有晶圆厂建设

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, highlighting its strong performance and growth potential in the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, prompting an increase in its 2026 capital expenditure (CAPEX) to between $52 billion and $56 billion, up from $40.9 billion in 2025. The company anticipates a revenue growth of 35.7% to 40% year-on-year, potentially reaching $35.8 billion [3][12]. - The demand for AI high-performance chips is driving TSMC's growth, with AI accelerator-related revenue accounting for approximately 17% to 19% of total revenue in 2025 [3][12]. - TSMC is accelerating the construction of its existing wafer fabs, with the third fab in Arizona already under construction and expected to begin production by the second half of 2027 [4][13]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The semiconductor sector has shown a strong performance, with the semiconductor index rising by 5.33% during the week of January 12 to January 16, 2026 [17][21]. Key Company Announcements - TSMC has begun mass production of 2nm technology in Q4 2025, with plans for enhanced versions and new technologies to be introduced in 2026 [4][13]. - The report suggests monitoring domestic semiconductor companies such as Cambricon, SMIC, Huahong, and others for potential investment opportunities [4][13]. Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, with Cambricon rated as "Buy" and others currently un-rated [14][28]. Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a rebound, with global semiconductor sales showing significant growth, particularly in AI and 5G applications. The report notes a 29.8% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales in November 2025 [36][37]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for NAND and DRAM memory chips, driven by AI storage needs, with prices for NAND and DRAM showing upward trends [50][51].