股指期货将震荡整理,白银、黄金期货将震荡偏强,锡、碳酸锂期货将偏强宽幅震荡,焦煤期货将震荡偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-20 11:00
- Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 20, 2026, and the overall trend of the main continuous contracts in January 2026 [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News and Trading Tips - Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium to solicit opinions on the government work report and the 15th Five - Year Plan [5] - China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with the fourth - quarter growth of 4.5%. Other economic data such as industrial added value, service industry added value, etc. were also released [5] - The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities showed a general decline in December 2024, with different trends in new and second - hand housing [5][6] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance will hold press conferences to introduce relevant economic policies [6] - Trump's tariff increase plan on 8 countries and the EU's possible counter - measures [5][6][7] - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [6] - Germany restarted electric vehicle purchase subsidies [7] 3.2 Commodity Futures - Related Information - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate futures contracts [7] - On January 19, due to the tense situation between the US and Europe over Greenland, safe - haven sentiment drove up the prices of gold and silver futures. International oil prices rose, and London base metals also increased across the board [7][8] - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar changed, and the US dollar index declined [8][9] 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On January 19, the main contracts of stock index futures showed different trends. The overall performance of A - shares was a shrinking shock, and the performance of Hong Kong and European stock markets was weak [9][12][13] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures IF, IH, IC, and IM will be oscillating strongly. On January 20, the contracts will be strongly oscillating [13][14] 3.3.2 Gold Futures - On January 19, the main contract AU2604 of gold futures rose. Technical analysis shows that the main continuous contract is in a strong upward position. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and on January 20, and may hit a record high [33][34] 3.3.3 Silver Futures - On January 19, the main contract AG2604 of silver futures rose. The main continuous contract is in a strong upward position. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and on January 20, and may hit a record high [38][39] 3.3.4 Copper Futures - On January 19, the main contract CU2603 of copper futures slightly rebounded. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and on January 20, and may hit a record high in January [45] 3.3.5 Aluminum Futures - On January 19, the main contract AL2603 of aluminum futures rebounded. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and on January 20, and may hit a record high in January [50] 3.3.6 Alumina Futures - On January 19, the main contract AO2605 of alumina futures declined. It is expected to be weakly and broadly oscillating in January 2026 and weakly oscillating on January 20 [56][57] 3.3.7 Nickel Futures - On January 19, the main contract NI2602 of nickel futures rebounded. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and on January 20 [61] 3.3.8 Tin Futures - On January 19, the main contract SN2602 of tin futures declined. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and strongly and broadly oscillating on January 20, and may hit a record high in January [67] 3.3.9 Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 19, the main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate futures rebounded. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and strongly and broadly oscillating on January 20 [70] 3.3.10 Rebar Futures - On January 19, the main contract RB2605 of rebar futures declined. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and oscillating on January 20 [74] 3.3.11 Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On January 19, the main contract HC2605 of hot - rolled coil futures declined. It is expected to be oscillating on January 20 [79] 3.3.12 Iron Ore Futures - On January 19, the main contract I2605 of iron ore futures declined. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and oscillating on January 20 [81] 3.3.13 Coking Coal Futures - On January 19, the main contract JM2605 of coking coal futures slightly rebounded. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and weakly oscillating on January 20 [85] 3.3.14 Glass Futures - On January 19, the main contract FG605 of glass futures declined. It is expected to be weakly and broadly oscillating in January 2026 and weakly oscillating on January 20 [88] 3.3.15 Soda Ash Futures - On January 19, the main contract SA605 of soda ash futures was stable. It is expected to be weakly and broadly oscillating in January 2026 and weakly oscillating on January 20 [92][93] 3.3.16 PVC Futures - On January 19, the main contract V2605 of PVC futures slightly declined. It is expected to be strongly oscillating on January 20 [97] 3.3.17 Methanol Futures - On January 19, the main contract MA605 of methanol futures declined. It is expected to be weakly oscillating on January 20 [98] 3.3.18 Cotton Futures - On January 19, the main contract CF605 of cotton futures slightly declined. It is expected to be weakly oscillating on January 20 [101] 3.3.19 Natural Rubber Futures - On January 19, the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures declined. It is expected to be weakly oscillating on January 20 [103]