有色金属日报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [2] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [3][6] - Alumina: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [3] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [3] - Zinc: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [4] - Lead and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [7] - Tin: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [8] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [9] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [10] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [11] Core Views - The overall situation of the non - ferrous metal market is complex, with different metals showing different trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and impacts from various factors such as geopolitics, cost changes, and market sentiment [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Tuesday saw Shanghai copper increase in positions and fluctuate with a positive line. The SMM spot copper price was 10,075 yuan, with a Shanghai discount of 150 yuan and a slightly decreased Yangshan copper premium. The refined - scrap price difference was 3,034 yuan. The domestic refined copper output in January is expected to pick up month - on - month. It is recommended to continue holding the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined. Spot premiums and discounts varied in different regions. Overseas geopolitical uncertainty is high, and the price is in high - level fluctuations with support at 23,800 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations with low market activity. Waste aluminum is tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The domestic alumina operating capacity is around 96 million tons, with significant over - supply. The average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan has dropped to around 2,600 yuan, and the spot price is under pressure [3] Zinc - Funds mainly reduced positions, and Shanghai zinc slightly declined. The SMM 0 zinc price was 24,340 yuan/ton. The price has support at 24,300 yuan/ton, but high prices suppress consumption. Although refinery maintenance provides cost support in the short - term, compared with the 2024 global zinc ingot supply - demand pattern, the high point of 25,600 yuan/ton in 2026 is likely to be the annual high, and the downward pressure on zinc ingots is expected to increase after the Spring Festival stocking demand [4] Lead - The SMM 1 lead price was 17,000 yuan/ton. There are expectations of inventory accumulation. Downstream buying willingness is low at high prices, and the import window remains open. The consumption of electric two - wheeler batteries is weak, while the consumption of automotive and energy - storage batteries maintains resilience. The price of Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in high - level fluctuations with active trading. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season, and high - level transactions are blocked. The basis between futures and spot is widening, and negative feedback risks are accumulating. The inventory of nickel and iron has changed, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased. In the short - term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position thinking should be continued [7] Tin - Shanghai tin is increasing positions and fluctuating between the MA5 - 10 moving averages. There are high inventories of tin ingots at home and abroad, and the LME spot discount is large. It is recommended to hold the option of selling call options at a high level [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit again, but downstream acceptance of high prices is weak. After the price fell from the high point, the market trading showed a mild recovery. The overall inventory decline has slowed down. The futures price is in high - level fluctuations with high short - term uncertainty [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened high and went low. Although the news of production cuts by leading enterprises boosted the market, the follow - up sentiment was weak. The spot price is stable, and the supply is expected to shrink significantly. The demand has no clear increase, and the overall procurement willingness is weak. The price is likely to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is hedging pressure above the 9,000 yuan/ton mark [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price rebounded with reduced positions and weak trading volume. The average price of N - type re - feeding materials in the spot market is stable. Leading enterprises plan to stop production at the end of the month, and downstream acceptance of the current price has marginally improved. The component sector's inventory has decreased slightly due to export - rush behavior, but overseas orders are lower than expected. The spot price is expected to rise steadily, and the futures market will continue the weak rebound trend [11]