黑色金属日报-20260120

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, with the steel price following the cost center down and mainly fluctuating within a range. The iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. Coke and coking coal are likely to follow a weakening trend. Silicon manganese and silicon iron need to pay attention to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [2][3][4][5][7][8] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is weak. The profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired, but the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The steel price mainly fluctuates within a range [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month, while the domestic arrival volume has declined but is much higher than last year. The port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand has improved in the off - season, and the iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [3] Coke - The coke price has declined in an oscillatory manner. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has slightly increased. With sufficient carbon element supply and weak downstream demand, it is likely to follow a weakening trend [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has declined in an oscillatory manner. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the terminal inventory has increased substantially. It is likely to be weakly volatile due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price has rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot price of manganese ore has increased. The demand for silicon manganese has decreased seasonally, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price has rebounded after hitting the bottom. Affected by policies, the supply has decreased significantly, and the demand remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [8]