每日核心期货品种分析-20260120

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: January 20, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on January 20, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Carbonate lithium hit the daily limit with an 8.99% increase, while coking coal dropped by over 4%. Different futures varieties have different market trends and influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and risk control [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Price Changes: Carbonate lithium hit the daily limit with an 8.99% increase, Shanghai silver and Shanghai tin rose by over 3%, PTA rose by over 2%, and Shanghai gold and palladium rose by nearly 2%. In terms of declines, coking coal dropped by over 4%, coke and glass dropped by over 3%. Stock index futures generally declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [6][7]. - Fund Flows: As of 15:23 on January 20, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2604 had an inflow of 7.055 billion yuan, carbonate lithium 2605 had an inflow of 1.34 billion yuan, and CSI 2603 had an inflow of 1.335 billion yuan. Shanghai silver 2604 had an outflow of 1.711 billion yuan, iron ore 2605 had an outflow of 579 million yuan, and live pigs 2603 had an outflow of 365 million yuan [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Copper (Shanghai Copper): Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, smelter profits have narrowed, and spot processing fees have weakened further. Refined copper production is expected to decline in January. Downstream demand is weak, but short - term declines do not represent long - term trends. The market is currently in a high - level consolidation stage, and the medium - to - long - term is bullish [9]. - Carbonate Lithium: Carbonate lithium opened low and moved higher, rising nearly 9%. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the daily limit range and margin standards. Although the fundamental trend has weakened, the demand for energy - storage batteries remains strong. The overall situation of carbonate lithium remains bullish, but the authenticity of market rumors needs to be carefully verified [11]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan, and the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. The EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East, such as the situation in Iran and the US - India relationship regarding oil imports, still affect the market, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [12][14]. - Asphalt: The supply side has seen a slight increase in the operating rate, and the expected production in January has decreased. The downstream operating rate has mostly declined, and the inventory rate of asphalt refineries has continued to rise. The situation in Venezuela has affected the supply of heavy - oil raw materials for domestic refineries. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [15]. - PP: The downstream operating rate of PP has declined slightly, and the enterprise operating rate has also decreased. The cost side has been affected by the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in oil prices. The supply has increased with new capacity coming on stream, and the demand is limited before the Spring Festival. It is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in a range [17]. - Plastic: The operating rate of plastic has increased, while the downstream operating rate has declined. The cost side is affected by the Iranian situation, and new capacity has been put into production. With the decline in agricultural film orders, it is expected that plastic will fluctuate weakly in a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate is basically stable, and the downstream operating rate has declined. The export has increased due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, but the transaction resistance has increased. The social inventory is still high, and it is expected that the 03 - 05 contracts will fluctuate strongly [20]. - Coking Coal: Coking coal opened low and moved lower. The supply has increased, and the inventory has been transferred from upstream to downstream. The downstream iron - water production has decreased slightly, but the steel mills still have a demand for raw materials during the winter - storage period. The coking coal price has support at the bottom [21][22]. - Urea: Urea opened low and moved lower. The supply is stable, and the downstream winter - storage is mostly over. The inventory has been reduced, and it is expected that the urea price will slow down its decline, fluctuate, and then show a bullish trend [23].