沪铜日报：美元下挫，推高铜价-20260120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly declined, narrowing smelter profits and weakening spot processing fees. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. Last week, the Shanghai copper price corrected, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases to fulfill historical orders. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increasing losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement is poor. In January, refined copper production is expected to decline. On the demand side, downstream copper purchasing sentiment is low, leading to a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, but subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. The short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. The US dollar index has dropped significantly, and market risk - aversion sentiment has pushed up non - ferrous metals, causing Shanghai copper to rise. The long - term fundamentals are in a tight - balance structure, and it is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, with attention on the short - term impact of the macro - environment on copper [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Shanghai copper opened and closed higher today. Since 2026, smelter profits have narrowed, and spot processing fees have weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. In January, refined copper production is expected to decline. Downstream copper purchasing sentiment is low, and the new - energy market performs poorly in the short - term. The US dollar index dropped on January 17, pushing up non - ferrous metals and causing Shanghai copper to rise. The long - term fundamentals are in a tight - balance structure, and it is bullish in the medium - to - long - term [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed higher today. Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 160 yuan/ton. On January 19, 2026, the LME official price is 12871 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is + 129 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3. Supply Side - As of January 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.80 cents/pound [5] 3.4. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 148,200 tons, a decrease of 4462 tons from the previous period. As of January 15, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 105,600 tons, a decrease of 5400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 147,400 tons, an increase of 3850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 542,900 short tons, an increase of 4197 short tons from the previous period [9]