尿素日报：需求依然有释放预期-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a situation where demand still has the expectation of release. Although the spot market is cold, with the approach of pre - holiday restocking, the decline of the urea futures market will slow down, and there is still a bullish expectation after shock consolidation [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened lower and moved lower today, with limited low - price transactions in the spot market. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] - There are no plans for plant shutdown and maintenance at present, and the gas - based production enterprises that were shut down earlier have gradually resumed production. The daily output is around 200,000 tons, and the supply is generally stable [1] - The winter storage is more than half over, and both agricultural and industrial demands have improved month - on - month. The start - up of compound fertilizer factories and finished product inventory have increased simultaneously, but the actual purchase volume of downstream is small. The inventory is currently being destocked, and it is expected that the pre - holiday start - up load will continue to have limited growth [1] - The inventory has been destocked to less than one million tons. With the progress of pre - holiday restocking, urea inventory will continue to be destocked [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1772 yuan/ton, closed at 1775 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.34%. The trading volume was 233,074 lots, a decrease of 2,813 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 1,490 lots, and short positions decreased by 3,446 lots [2] - Spot: Factories are reducing prices to attract orders, but low - price transactions are still limited, and the spot market is cold [1][4] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation remained stable today, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [8] - Supply: On January 20, 2026, the national daily urea output was 202,800 tons, the same as yesterday, and the start - up rate was 83.57% [11] - Warehouse receipts: On January 20, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, the same as the previous trading day [3]