新能源及有色金属日报：下游按需采购，铜价维持震荡格局-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House has slightly affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price has been somewhat affected but with a relatively limited decline. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation recently, the copper price may be in a temporary shock pattern, with the shock range expected to be between 99,500 yuan/ton and 125,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 19, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 101,030 yuan/ton and closed at 101,180 yuan/ton, a 0.41% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,680 yuan/ton, a 1.02% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to par against the current - month contract, with an average discount of 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 100,590 to 101,290 yuan/ton. The market trading was light, and the spot discount pattern may continue [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss the US tariff issue, and the EU is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth 9.3 billion euros [3] - Mine End: Australian copper developer Austral Resources will acquire Glencore's Lady Loretta zinc - lead mine in Queensland. Canadian First Quantum Minerals lowered its copper production guidance for the next two years [4] - Smelting and Import: LME copper inventory rebounded from a two - month low, SHFE copper inventory continued to rise to a nine - month high, and New York copper inventory reached a new high. In December 2025, China's unforged copper and copper products exports increased by 117.0% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 21.8% year - on - year [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,450 tons to 147,425 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 7,762 tons to 152,655 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5] 3.2 Strategy - The strategy for copper is neutral, with an expected shock range of 99,500 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options [6][7]