鸡蛋日报-20260120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent price increase is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices. Considering that the March contract is a post - Spring Festival contract and egg demand is weak after the Spring Festival, the upward space of the 03 contract is expected to be relatively limited. [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 3.64 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.91 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable, with some regions showing price fluctuations. [4] - In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. [5] - From January 16th, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of laying hens was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. [5] - As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,391 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low. [5] - As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. [6] - As of January 15th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly decreasing. [6] - Today, the national price of slaughtered hens increased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. [7] 2. Trading Logic - Due to the approaching Spring Festival, the overall market sales are fast, and the spot price has risen significantly, which provides some support for the futures market. The egg industry is currently in the process of capacity reduction, and it is expected that the capacity will continue to decline in the next few months. [8] 3. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 contracts at low prices. [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [10]