中加互相降低商品关税，国内菜油价格如何变化？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China plans to lower the tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March 1st, which is expected to restart the procurement of Canadian rapeseed and ease the domestic rapeseed supply in the future. However, the details of the tax reduction have not been finalized, and the short - term supply of domestic rapeseed oil remains tight, limiting the decline of futures prices [4][10]. - If the tax reduction is implemented, the import profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, which will stimulate domestic traders to increase purchases. The annual import volume may approach the 5 - 6 million tons level of 2023 - 2024. After April, the supply - demand of rapeseed and rapeseed oil will be more relaxed, but before April, the supply - demand will remain relatively tight [1][9][10]. - The implementation of the Canadian rapeseed tax reduction is expected to enhance the expectation of marginal improvement in the tight supply - demand of domestic rapeseed in the far - month. It has a bearish impact on the rapeseed oil futures price overall. In the short term, the price of the rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is bearish [2][10]. Summary by Related Content Trade Agreement - From January 14 - 17, 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Carney led a delegation to visit China. After the visit, Carney said that China and Canada had reached a preliminary agreement to mutually lower tariffs on key commodities. China will lower the tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March 1st, and Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese - made electric vehicles to enter its market at a 6.1% tax rate [1][4]. Impact on Import Profit - In 2025, China's import control on Canadian rapeseed products tightened. After August 14, importers had to pay a 75.8% deposit to the customs, resulting in a serious deterioration of import profit. On January 19, 2026, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed for the March shipment was as high as 7,835 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 2,992 yuan/ton. If calculated at a 15% import tax, the import cost would drop to 4,698 yuan/ton, and the import profit would soar to 145 yuan/ton [5]. Past Import Situation - In normal years, Canadian rapeseed products account for about 90% of China's total rapeseed imports. In 2025, due to anti - dumping measures, China's import volume of Canadian rapeseed decreased significantly. From January to November 2025, China imported 2.45 million tons of rapeseed (a year - on - year decrease of 62%), including 2.33 million tons of Canadian rapeseed (a year - on - year decrease of 62%). By the week of January 16, 2026, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas was only 60,000 tons of Australian rapeseed, a year - on - year decrease of 89%. The coastal + East China rapeseed oil inventory was 276,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43% [6]. Future Supply - Demand Forecast - If the tax reduction is implemented, China is expected to import a large amount of Canadian rapeseed in 2026, and the actual import volume may approach the 5 - 6 million tons level of 2023 - 2024. If oil mills start to buy Canadian rapeseed for the March shipment now, it will arrive in China as early as April. After April, the supply - demand of rapeseed and rapeseed oil will be more relaxed, but before April, the supply - demand will remain relatively tight [1][9][10]. Market Outlook and Focus - The implementation of the Canadian rapeseed tax reduction is expected to enhance the expectation of marginal improvement in the tight supply - demand of domestic rapeseed in the far - month, which has a bearish impact on the rapeseed oil futures price overall. In the short term, the price of the rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is bearish. The follow - up should focus on the implementation time and specific form of the tax reduction, the result of the final review of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed on March 9, and the procurement progress of domestic Canadian rapeseed after the tax reduction [2][10].