关税预期落空，铂钯高位震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff expectation for platinum and palladium has failed, and they are oscillating at high levels. From a fundamental perspective, platinum has stronger upward momentum than palladium [1][5]. - The market is influenced by multiple factors. The dollar index showed an overall oscillating and strengthening pattern last week, while commodities, especially precious metals, were strong due to geopolitical risks and the temporary weakening of the dollar, but there was some profit - taking over the weekend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Macro - aspect - Last week, three main market lines interacted: the investigation of Powell and the successor turmoil initially pressured the dollar and boosted safe - haven assets; the resilience of economic data supported the dollar in the middle and later stages; geopolitical and trade risks increased the prices of crude oil and safe - haven metals and added uncertainty to global trade policies [5]. Fundamental - aspect - According to the 2026 supply - demand balance sheet, platinum is in a tight - balance state, while palladium is shifting from a supply - demand gap in the past decade to a supply surplus, so platinum has stronger upward drive [5]. News - aspect - President Trump announced a suspension of new tariffs on imported key minerals and will seek agreement negotiations with foreign countries. The tariff expectation has failed to some extent, and the spot rush is expected to ease, but the calculation mechanism of the "minimum import price system" needs continuous attention [6]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Continuously monitor the adjustment performance and whether there are more negative factors. Currently, precious metals are in a high - level oscillation state. Previous long positions should be moderately closed for profit. It is recommended to wait and see for new unilateral positions (PT: 560 - 670, PD: 450 - 520) [7]. - Arbitrage: After the tariff expectation failed, the price difference between platinum and palladium widened rapidly. The short - term profit space for going long on platinum and short on palladium is expected to be limited. Wait for the price to fall before entering the market [7]. - Options: The time value is too high, so it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 2. Trading and Arbitrage Data Tracking Weekly Trading Data of Guangzhou Futures Exchange - As of the close on January 16th, the total open interest of the PT contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 37,858 lots, a decrease of 1,732 lots from the previous period, and the weekly trading volume was approximately 105.2 billion yuan. The total open interest of the PD contract was 14,994 lots, a decrease of 30 lots, and the weekly trading volume was approximately 46.869 billion yuan [25]. Spot Arbitrage - For platinum, there are arbitrage opportunities for buying Shanghai Gold Exchange spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts, and for buying London platinum spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts. For palladium, there are arbitrage opportunities for buying domestic palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts, and for buying London palladium spot and selling long - term Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts [28][29]. 3. Fundamental Data Tracking Platinum Supply and Demand - In 2026, platinum is expected to be in a basic supply - demand balance. The demand structure is relatively healthy, with stable demand in major fields such as automotive, chemical, and jewelry. There is still potential for an upward breakthrough in the future [34][35]. Palladium Supply and Demand - In 2026, palladium supply is expected to increase by 5.85% year - on - year, while demand is expected to decline by 1.27%, resulting in a supply surplus of 20.37 tons. The fundamental support for palladium prices may be limited in the future [37]. CFTC Positions - As of January 13th, the net long position of platinum asset management institutions was 7,865 contracts (a month - on - month increase of 748 contracts), and the net short position of commercial institutions was 23,806 contracts (a month - on - month decrease of 108 contracts). The net long position of palladium asset management institutions was - 16 contracts (a month - on - month decrease of 96 contracts), and the net short position of commercial institutions was 2,890 contracts (a month - on - month increase of 549 contracts) [41][50]. Inventory - The total CME palladium inventory on January 16th was 207,020.01 troy ounces, a decrease of 4,285.80 troy ounces from January 9th [55]. Lease Rates - There are data on the one - month, three - month, six - month, and one - year lease rates for both platinum and palladium, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [60][63].