油粕日报：油强粕弱-20260120

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is uncertain about the later-stage state reserve release schedule, and the recent premium transactions of imported soybeans indicate a supply gap and strong short - term demand. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts may weaken due to the bearish effect of the USDA report and could decline further if South American harvest progresses well [1]. - In 2026, palm oil production is predicted to grow 1.0% moderately, but due to weak demand, exports will remain low at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks will stay high at 3.18 million tons. Palm oil prices are expected to be between 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year. Palm oil's price advantage, upcoming festivals, and the low - production season will support prices. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed by a Chinese importer may affect Australia's sales. Although the Indonesian palm oil B50 plan has failed and the upside potential is limited, there is significant buying support. The cost of crushing Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff is still high, providing strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2]. 3) Summaries by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of January 16, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 1.39%, up from 0.53% a week ago, compared to 0.23% last year and 2.38% in 2024, with a five - year average of 1.02% [1]. - The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) will bring continuous rainfall to most parts of Brazil in the next few weeks, affecting the harvest and sowing in major production areas until the second half of January [1]. Vegetable Oils - MBSB predicts a 1.0% moderate growth in palm oil production in 2026, with exports at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks at 3.18 million tons. The price is expected to be 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year [2]. - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton Panamax cargo of Canadian rapeseed after the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which may boost Canadian exports and weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2]. - The failure of Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan limits the upside potential, but there is significant buying support. The high crushing cost of Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff provides strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2].