PP日报：震荡下行-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PP market is expected to experience a weakening oscillatory trend within a certain range due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and shrinking downstream product profits [1] - The L - PP price spread is expected to decline as there is new production capacity for plastics and the L开工率 is higher than that of PP, along with a continuous decline in agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring products, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 20, new maintenance units such as the first and second lines of Juzhengyuan Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises decreased to around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but it has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - The cost of crude oil has decreased as the US has postponed military strikes against Iran and the situation in Iran has cooled down [1] - There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and the number of maintenance units has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of BOPP film in the downstream has rebounded, but with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PP2605 contract decreased by 0.72% in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 6461 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 4253 lots to 466,241 lots [2] - Most spot prices of PP in various regions have declined, with drawstring products priced at 6240 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on January 20, new maintenance units led to a decrease in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 80%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, and the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week [4] - Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Tuesday was flat at 560,000 tons compared to the previous day, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 64 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 785 US dollars per ton [6]