沥青日报：震荡运行-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on the situation in Venezuela and adopt a counter - spread strategy. The supply is affected by refinery production adjustments and the situation in Venezuela, while the demand is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and project progress [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and a decrease of 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The resumption of production at major refineries in East China last week increased supply and shipments. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical switched to asphalt production, while Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical planned to stop production, keeping the asphalt operating rate at a low level. The US military action in Venezuela restricts the flow of heavy crude oil to domestic refineries, affecting asphalt production and costs [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. Road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. New snow and rain are coming, and road construction in the north is gradually ending, and southern projects are also entering the final stage, so the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate continued to rise week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong decreased slightly, and the basis was at a relatively low - to - neutral level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 0.03% to 3,139 yuan/ton today, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,124 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,156 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 985 to 190,549 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 69 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Liaoning Zhende resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with the period from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 4.7% in the period from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 1.1% in the period from January to November 2025. As of the week of January 16, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point compared with the period from January to November, and the recovery of enterprise medium - and long - term financing demand remained weak [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 16, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.7 percentage point to 14.1% compared with the week of January 9 and was near the lowest level in recent years [5].