PVC日报：震荡运行-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and fluctuating trend in the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% on a month - on - month basis, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points due to winter, with poor downstream product orders and low willingness to stock up actively [1] - Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, there was a rush to export in the market last week, with a significant increase in PVC export orders to a recent high. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing [1] - The social inventory continued to increase last week and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage from January to December 2025, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion [1] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to recover, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years, and it will take time for the real estate to improve. The macro - sentiment has subsided, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have declined, but the current production decline is limited. The PVC operating rate has changed little, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, with limited demand in India [1] - January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, with average purchasing enthusiasm, and the social inventory continues to increase [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,770 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,841 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,807 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.25% and an increase in open interest of 22,859 lots to 1,037,034 lots [2] - On January 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,580 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,807 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 227 yuan/ton, strengthening by 21 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% on a month - on - month basis, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical with 500,000 tons/year, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons/year, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons/year, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons/year, were put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons/year started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. The new housing construction area was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new residential construction area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The housing completion area was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the residential completion area was 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. Overall, it will take time for the real estate to improve [5] - As of the week of January 18, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% on a month - on - month basis, at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5] - As of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% on a month - on - month basis to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remains high [6]