原油日报：原油震荡运行-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a state of supply surplus, and the EIA's January monthly report has raised the forecast for the supply surplus in 2026. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate and consolidate, and the recent situation of the confrontation between Europe, America and Greenland also needs attention [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. During the off - season of crude oil demand, EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and gasoline inventories also increased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to rise. U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil as required by the U.S., the U.S. may further increase tariffs on Indian products. India's imports of Russian crude oil in December 2025 fell to a three - year low, down one - third from the peak in June. The crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the U.S. are low, and the market still worries about crude oil demand. Exports from the Middle East have increased, and global floating crude oil storage is high. Trump said Venezuela would transfer 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation also affect the market [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, fell 1.27% to 437.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 436.3 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 440.8 yuan/ton, and an open interest that decreased by 723 to 40,047 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. As of the week of January 9, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 29,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 745,000 barrels. OPEC's October crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.480 million barrels per day. OPEC+ November production increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared with October to 43.06 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 9 decreased by 58,000 barrels per day to 13.753 million barrels per day [3] Consumption Data - According to the latest data of the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.67% increase compared with the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production increased by 1.64% to 8.304 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.495 million barrels per day, the same as last year. Diesel weekly production increased by 28.20% to 4.096 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 3.707 million barrels per day, a 2.23% increase compared with the same period last year. The supply of U.S. crude oil products increased by 9.27% week - on - week [4]