能源日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main tone of the crude oil market is a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand, and the short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited [3] - The fuel oil market is still dominated by geopolitical factors, with high-sulfur fuel oil being strong in the near term due to geopolitical disturbances and low-sulfur fuel oil being pressured by increasing marginal supply [4] - The asphalt price fluctuates with the crude oil price, and the current upward driving force is limited, falling into a range-bound pattern [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump's administration postponed military action against Iran, causing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices to partially reverse. Unless there is a significant disruption in oil supply, the short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited, and the market is dominated by a bearish pattern of loose supply and demand [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is geopolitically driven. For high-sulfur fuel oil, geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran tension are in focus. If Iranian exports are blocked, regional supply will tighten. In the medium term, supply tends to be loose due to abundant raw materials, floating storage, and high inventories. For low-sulfur fuel oil, winter demand provides some support, but overseas refinery supply is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. The absolute price of fuel oil follows crude oil, with high-sulfur being strong in the near term and low-sulfur being pressured by increasing supply [4] Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the crude oil price but with a relatively limited amplitude. After the current market has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightened supply of Venezuelan oil to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it has entered a range-bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [5]