螺纹日报：增仓下跌-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but the data released this week shows an increase, indicating that winter storage demand is starting. Production has slightly decreased and is relatively low compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy has a contraction expectation for production capacity, providing support. Inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The cost support has shifted downward, and real estate demand continues the downward cycle, limiting the upside. However, infrastructure demand may have some resilience. There may still be a possibility of weakness in the short - term, but it is not advisable to chase short positions. Attention should be paid to whether the support near the previous lows can stabilize. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract increased its position by 13,280 lots on Tuesday, with a lower trading volume compared to the previous trading day (936,583 lots). It decreased with increasing positions during the day, falling below the 5 - day, 130 - day, and 60 - day moving averages, with a low of 3110, a high of 3147, and closing at 3111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton or 1.18%. [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day. [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 169 yuan/ton to the spot. The large basis provided some support, and there was a certain cost - effectiveness for winter storage on the futures. [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons week - on - week to 1.903 million tons, after four consecutive weeks of increase. The year - on - year decrease was 29,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons week - on - week. This week's production decline and the relatively low weekly production in recent years provided some support for prices. [2] - Demand: Apparent consumption rebounded, indicating the possible start of winter storage. As of the week of January 15, the apparent consumption increased by 153,800 tons week - on - week to 1.9034 million tons, and the year - on - year increase was 51,900 tons. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption increased significantly, indicating the possible start of winter storage demand. [2] - Inventory: There was a slight inventory reduction, with a decrease in mill inventory and an increase in social inventory. As of the week of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 400 tons week - on - week to 4.3807 million tons. The social inventory was 2.9541 million tons, an increase of 52,300 tons week - on - week but still at a relatively low level in recent years, and the mill inventory was 1.4266 million tons, a decrease of 52,700 tons. The increase in social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and the decrease in mill inventory indicated some winter storage by traders. [3] - Macroeconomics: The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Efforts were made to stabilize the real estate market, control the increment, reduce inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, which was in line with expectations. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Macroscopically, the incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided support, and the demand ceiling determined the pressure. [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, anti - involution production cuts on the supply side, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - festival demand, and a loose macro - economic outlook. [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slower inventory clearance, accelerated blast furnace复产, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery. [4] Short - Term View Summary - The current rebar demand is seasonally weak, but the data released this week shows an increase, indicating that winter storage demand is starting. Production has slightly decreased and is relatively low compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy has a contraction expectation for production capacity, providing support. Inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The cost support has shifted downward, and real estate demand continues the downward cycle, limiting the upside. However, infrastructure demand may have some resilience. There may still be a possibility of weakness in the short - term, but it is not advisable to chase short positions. Attention should be paid to whether the support near the previous lows can stabilize. [4]