软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑-20260120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the central bank's signal of future interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts and the State Council's emphasis on promoting consumption briefly boosted market sentiment. The hype about the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang has been digested. Before the Spring Festival, textile enterprises have some restocking needs, but the weakening of orders from cloth factories may affect textile enterprises, weakening the support for cotton prices. However, global production is reduced, demand is increased, and ending inventory is decreased, so the downside space is relatively limited, and it is mainly regarded as a short - term adjustment [1] - For sugar, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of January 17, 2026, Thailand's sugar production decreased slightly, while India's sugar production increased significantly, suppressing the raw sugar price. China's sugar imports in December 2025 and the whole - year imports increased year - on - year, and the domestic supply is still abundant. The domestic inflection point may appear at the end of the first quarter, with short - term adjustment possible, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Macro aspect: The central bank signaled future interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the State Council emphasized promoting consumption, briefly boosting market sentiment [1] - Industry aspect: The hype about the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang has been digested. Before the Spring Festival, textile enterprises have restocking needs, but the weakening of cloth factory orders may affect textile enterprises, weakening the support for cotton prices. Global production is reduced, demand is increased, and ending inventory is decreased, with limited downside space and short - term adjustment [1] Sugar - Thailand: As of January 17, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 29.2643 million tons, a decrease of 5.6156 million tons or 16.09% year - on - year; the sugar content of sugarcane was 11.95%, an increase of 0.08% year - on - year; the sugar production rate was 9.790%, a decrease of 0.024% year - on - year; the sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a decrease of 0.5581 million tons or 16.3% year - on - year [2] - India: As of January 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the sugar production reached 15.909 million tons, an increase of nearly 22% year - on - year; the number of operating sugar mills was 518, an increase of 18 compared to the same period last year [2] - China: In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 188,500 tons year - on - year; the annual cumulative sugar imports were 4.9188 million tons, an increase of 0.5622 million tons year - on - year. The domestic supply is abundant, the inflection point may appear at the end of the first quarter, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [2]