铁矿日报：发运、到港量均回落，市场情绪有所降温-20260120

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The iron ore market is currently in a state of slight weakness in the short - term, but the overall downside space is limited. The supply side of new shipments is gradually decreasing, the demand side is slightly recovering, and the inventory in ports is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to decline weakly, closing at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 363,000 lots, the open interest was 587,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.187 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 10 yuan to 794 yuan, and Super Special powder dropped 10 yuan to 670 yuan. The swap main contract was 104.2 US dollars/ton (- 0.75 US dollars). The spot and swap prices declined again [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 823.7 yuan/ton, and the basis was 34.2 yuan/ton, with a significant contraction. The spread between iron ore contracts 2 - 5 was 17.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 18 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis. Although it showed a weak shock in the short - term, the overall downside space might be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline in Australia and Brazil and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The current arrival volume decreased month - on - month, and there were expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The arrival of the first batch of iron ore from Mangu increased the expected supply pressure [2]. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was still supported. Steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream was strong. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron and the release rhythm of replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [2]. - Inventory: Ports continued to accumulate inventory, the inventory under pressure increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still accumulating. The inventory of steel mills was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the CPI in December decreased to 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest - rate cut expectation was postponed to June [4]. - Domestic: Policies focused on new fields, such as a 25 - basis - point reduction in the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and investment plans for the new power system of the power grid. Exports were more resilient than expected, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% in December. Social financing data showed that corporate loans and bond financing were stronger than seasonal, but the real estate and infrastructure were seasonally weak. The improvement of inflation was clear, and PP was expected to continue to recover [4].