焦煤日报：黑色系承压运行-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - The coking coal market is under pressure. The futures price of coking coal opened lower and moved lower intraday. Although the downstream steel mills still have the expectation of resuming production during the winter storage period and are expected to increase the procurement of raw materials, the explosion accident at Baogang Plate Factory in Inner Mongolia may have an impact on the market, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent impact of the accident. At present, China still releases a signal of stable growth, so there is support below the coking coal price [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The coking coal futures opened lower and moved lower intraday. On the supply side, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 88.47%, a month - on - month increase of 3.13%. After the resumption of work, the inventory of coking coal mines decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decrease of 22.64 tons. The coking enterprises increased their inventory by 61.17 tons, and the steel mills increased their inventory by 4.47 tons. The downstream molten iron output decreased by 0.47% month - on - month, with a weekly output of 228.01 tons. The steel mills still have the expectation of resuming production, and the procurement of raw materials is expected to increase. Pay attention to the subsequent impact of the explosion accident at Baogang Plate Factory in Inner Mongolia [1] Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price was 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal was 1045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures was 1124 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 146 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 88.47%, a month - on - month increase of 3.13 percentage points; the daily output of clean coking coal was 76.85 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.42 tons [3] Demand Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the daily output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63.45 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 tons; the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 tons; the daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 228.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons [5]