焦炭日报：短期承压下行，等待市场进一步指引-20260120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by coking coal cost, steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and the overall supply - demand is weak. The downstream steel mill's hot metal production is relatively stable, and they replenish stocks as needed. The real - estate investment growth rate decline continues to expand, and the industry is under short - term pressure due to negative real - estate data. With a generally warm macro - environment and the implementation of domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts, the market awaits further policy guidance. In the short term, it is under pressure and may decline, and attention should be paid to the support performance near the previous low. Overall, it will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, and a low - buying strategy can be considered [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Coke Inventory - As of January 16, the inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons. The steel mill inventory increased to 650.33 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.41% to 265.07 tons. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a 7 - month high and a year - on - year decrease of over 2% [1] 2. Coke Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is - 53 yuan/ton, and another data shows - 7 yuan/ton. The average profit of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 105 yuan/ton, and the average profit of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is - 12 yuan/ton [1] 3. Downstream Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate dropped to 85.48%. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, an increase of 3.53 tons compared to the same period last year [1] 4. Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory in coal mines decreased by 7.66%. The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises increased by 5.71% to 1132.85 tons, the steel mill coking coal inventory slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and the port imported coking coal inventory continued to increase. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, which is lower than the previous year's level [2] 5. News - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices and will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. It is also researching and formulating actions to stabilize employment, expand employment, and improve quality, as well as a plan to increase the income of urban and rural residents. The Ministry of Finance will continue to arrange ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for "two important" construction and "two new" work in 2026 [2]