美国政策追踪：一年之约，特朗普还能改变什么？

External Factors - Trump's tariffs remain a hot topic, with a shift towards using tariffs as a negotiation tool for trade agreements and to alleviate domestic pressures[4] - In 2025, tariff revenues increased by approximately $118 billion, which could have led to a larger fiscal deficit without these tariffs[10] - The geopolitical strategy shows a tendency towards strategic withdrawal, with a focus on Latin America and limited military intervention, potentially weakening the U.S.'s global institutional advantages[8] Internal Factors - The fiscal policy is characterized by a struggle to effectively reduce the deficit, with projections indicating that the fiscal deficit for FY 2025 may expand without significant changes[6] - The 2026 fiscal year is expected to face challenges in implementing substantial fiscal tightening, with a projected deficit rate higher than in 2024[10] - Trump's policy shift towards resource redistribution may increase volatility in U.S. asset prices, particularly affecting financial and large tech companies while benefiting smaller firms[10] Market Implications - The combination of expansionary fiscal policy and a coordinated monetary policy may support global liquidity, favoring risk assets[10] - Non-U.S. assets may benefit from spillover effects, while U.S. assets could experience structural differentiation, with a tendency for the dollar to depreciate[10] - The focus on resource redistribution may lead to increased scrutiny on consumer goods and essential sectors, impacting inflation concerns among voters[8]