纯碱日报：短期震荡偏弱-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - Although the short - term sentiment is slightly supported by news, considering the intensifying industrial contradiction of over - capacity, it is advisable to adopt the strategy of shorting on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The main soda ash contract opened high and closed low, with an intraday weakening trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are downward, indicating a short - term weakening trend. The intraday resistance is near the 20 - day moving average, and support is near the lower Bollinger Band. Trading volume decreased by 297,000 lots compared to the previous day, and open interest decreased by 3,291 lots. The intraday high was 1,195, the low was 1,173, and the closing price was 1,177, down 24 yuan/ton or 2% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: The spot market is running steadily. Enterprise equipment is fluctuating slightly. Lianyungang Soda Industry's equipment is gradually recovering, and Debang's output has been slightly adjusted, with the overall output increasing slightly. Downstream demand is tepid, with buyers purchasing on an as - needed basis at low prices. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and prices are adjusting steadily [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 73 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, down 0.46 percentage points; the joint - soda process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, up 4.77 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.47%, up 1.32 percentage points [2] - Inventory: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons or 1.96% from the previous Thursday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,400 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,400 tons [2] - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%. The overall shipment rate was 99.70%, up 21.52 percentage points. Downstream demand for soda ash is average, mainly focusing on inventory consumption and low - price procurement. Light soda ash demand is relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash has weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2][3] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit of the joint - soda process (per double - ton) was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall production is constantly increasing. The cold - repair pace of glass has slowed down in the short term, and the rigid demand for soda ash has slightly recovered. Additionally, due to continuous losses and recent positive news, there is some short - term support. However, considering the intensifying over - capacity issue, a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [4]