棕油上涨、白糖下挫

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil market is expected to be bullish due to reduced production and increased exports in Malaysia, while the sugar market is likely to be bearish because of seasonal supply pressure and increased imports [1][2][3] - The hog market is short - term bearish, affected by high supply and insufficient demand; the soybean meal market has a limited rebound and still faces pressure; the egg market is in a weak oscillation; the cotton market continues to decline but the decline slows down [5][7][9][11] 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract is strongly rising. In January, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 18.24% month - on - month, and exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% month - on - month. It is expected that the inventory reduction in January may be large. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to look for support levels to buy lightly at low prices, with the support range at 8662 - 8700 [2] Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2605 contract breaks downward. The southern sugar cane is in the peak crushing season, and the import in December was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The cumulative import from January to December 2025 was 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions, with the resistance area at 5200 - 5240 [3] Hog - The hog main 2603 contract continues to fall sharply. The national pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The overall capacity reduction is slow, and the demand is insufficient. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is short - term trading, paying attention to whether the 40 - day moving average of 11,500 can support [5] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2605 contract rebounds at a low level but the rebound is limited. The domestic soybean oil mill's crushing volume has decreased, and the inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks. As of the third weekend in 2026, the inventory was 948,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.97%, but the pressure is still large. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to participate in short - selling in the short - term with a stop - loss [7] Egg - The egg main 2603 contract oscillates weakly. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the market trading has weakened. The production - link inventory has increased, and the high inventory still has a large supply pressure. The strategy is short - term trading [9] Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract continues to fall but the decline slows. Some long positions are closing, and the import in December increased by nearly 50% month - on - month, while the annual import in 2025 was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is short - term trading [11]