天富期货碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报-20260120

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is affected by supply - side concerns due to lithium mine license replacement and production suspension in Yichun, and the demand side shows a "rush - to - export" behavior. In the long - term, the price center may move up [1][2][3]. - The industrial silicon market is under downward pressure due to weak demand and high inventory, and the price still has room to fall [7][9]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of weak supply and demand with high inventory, and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit today, with the main 2605 contract at 160,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Core Logic: Supply concerns are triggered by the license replacement and production suspension of lithium mines in Yichun. The demand side is driven by the "rush - to - export" behavior, and the production of some phosphoric acid iron - lithium enterprises has recovered [1]. - Technical Analysis: The 5 - minute level cycle of the 2605 contract is red line, red band, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 146,200 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the short - term, operate cautiously and wait for the market to stabilize before buying at low prices. In the long - term, the price center may move up due to strong terminal demand [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures oscillated weakly today, with the 2605 contract down 1.13% from the previous trading day's closing price, at 8,745 yuan/ton [7]. - Core Logic: The impact of the planned production cut by a large Xinjiang factory yesterday has weakened. Supply is decreasing, and demand remains weak with low开工 rate and no pre - holiday stocking. High inventory also puts downward pressure on prices [7][9]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of industrial silicon futures continues to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the 2605 contract is green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,605 yuan/ton [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: Operate by shorting at high prices, and refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading [9]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures oscillated today, with the main 2605 contract up 0.39% from the previous trading day's closing price, at 50,700 yuan/ton [14]. - Core Logic: After the market supervision department's约谈, the silicon material price will return to cost - based competition. The supply and demand are both weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [14]. - Technical Analysis: The position of polysilicon futures continues to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the 2605 contract is green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour level cycle has turned into a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 48,420 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy Suggestion: The market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [15].