能化维持偏空思路

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium on crude oil due to the Iran situation is set to reverse, and supply - side pressures will drive prices down. For chemicals, high - supply and high - inventory situations in many products will cause price adjustments, with some products facing demand - side negative feedback [2] Content Summaries by Category Crude Oil - Logic: The Iran geopolitical sentiment peaked on the night of January 14 and reversed on January 15, leading to the reversal of the geopolitical premium on crude oil, and supply - side pressures will drive prices down [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 447 [3] Asphalt - Logic: Weak supply - demand fundamentals during the off - season, potential recovery of Venezuela's oil exports, and a decline in the cost center due to the reversal of crude oil's geopolitical premium [6][7] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle [7] Styrene - Logic: The port inventory is decreasing, but the rate is slowing. Short - term supply - demand tightness provides support, but there is pressure on the cost center due to the potential decline in crude oil prices. Pay attention to the pre - holiday demand [8] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and wait for a short - selling opportunity after the price breaks the support [8] Pure Benzene - Logic: An increase in the pure benzene - styrene - methanol spread has pushed up the price, but high port inventories and potential downward pressure on crude oil prices pose risks. Avoid chasing high prices [12] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities after a small - cycle breakdown [12] Rubber - Logic: Before the new tapping season, there is no supply - side speculation. High tire inventories limit demand, and high imports lead to high Qingdao inventories. It follows synthetic rubber passively [15] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound on the hourly cycle [15] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The rebound of crude oil is likely to peak. The previous cost - push logic is weakening, and there are issues such as high inventories and weak downstream demand. It will be under cost - related pressure [18] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions from the 15 - minute cycle on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 11950 [18] PX - Logic: Although the mid - term fundamentals are strong, recent supply increases and weak downstream demand have led to a short - term negative feedback. Wait for a second low - buying opportunity [20] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle [20][23] PTA - Logic: High supply, weak downstream demand, and a decline in the cost center due to lower crude oil prices lead to short - term negative feedback [25] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle [25] PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain are weak, with new capacity and off - season demand. It is recommended for a hedging strategy as part of a chemical portfolio [27] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [27] Methanol - Logic: The supply speculation due to the Iran situation is cooling, and there is high domestic supply, a potential decline in coal prices, and demand - side negative feedback [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term both show a downward structure. Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound on the hourly cycle [30] PVC - Logic: High supply, high inventory, and weak demand persist. There is a short - term positive impact from potential power - price policies, but the long - term outlook is still bearish [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and use a short - selling strategy during small - cycle rebounds [33] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: High supply, weak demand during the off - season, and increasing port inventories drive the price down [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a profit - taking reference of 3770 [35] Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain are weak, with new capacity and off - season demand. It is recommended for a hedging strategy as part of a chemical portfolio [38] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Wait for a reverse - package entry signal after a rebound on the hourly cycle [38] Soda Ash - Logic: High production, high inventory, and weak demand. There will be a pre - April rush - to - export situation, but the post - April export pressure will increase. Adopt a short - selling strategy after a rebound [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities during small - cycle rebounds [40] Caustic Soda - Logic: High supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply pressure remains high, and the downward trend is difficult to reverse [42] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Temporarily hold off on trading on the hourly cycle and avoid bottom - fishing before the structure turns bullish [42]