塑料日报：震荡运行-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The plastics industry is expected to experience a weakening oscillatory trend in the near - term, with the L - PP spread likely to decline due to new production capacity, higher plastics operating rates compared to PP, and continuous decline in agricultural film orders [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 20, the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical's overhauled units led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 91%, a moderately high level. As of the week ending January 16, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The easing of the Iran situation caused a drop in crude oil prices. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, with limited pre - holiday stocking [1][4] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract decreased by 0.90% to close at 6640 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9748 lots in open interest to 495212 lots [2] - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with LLDPE at 6650 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8900 - 9210 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8290 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 20, the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical's overhauled units raised the plastics operating rate to about 91%, a moderately high level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 16, the PE downstream operating rate dropped to 40.93%, with agricultural film orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and packaging film orders slightly declining [4] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory on Tuesday was 560,000 tons, the same as the previous day and 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but average recently, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $64 per barrel, and the Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene prices remained unchanged at $710 and $700 per ton respectively [4]