香港债券市场全景及投资价值分析

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the mainland bond market is expected to maintain a low - interest - rate environment. "Going outbound" to seek high - coupon bonds remains one of the main demands of non - bank institutions. The new "Southbound Connect" policy may be gradually implemented, so investors can actively focus on the Hong Kong bond market to further explore investment value [2]. - The expansion of the "Southbound Connect" mechanism will significantly broaden the channels for non - bank institutions such as securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and bank wealth management to participate in the Hong Kong bond market. It is recommended to focus on the investment opportunities of dim sum bonds, which have been continuously expanding in recent years, and Chinese - funded US dollar bonds with a large outstanding scale [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Hong Kong Bond Market Development History and Outstanding Structure Characteristics 3.1.1 Development History: From Dominated by US Dollar Bonds to the Rise of RMB Bonds - The Hong Kong bond market can be divided into three development stages. Before 2015, it was in a slow - development stage, with the issuance scale growing from $100 million in 1989 to $103.3 billion in 2014, mainly corporate bonds. After the launch of the "Government Bond Program" in 2009, the issuance scale of government bonds began to increase [3][15]. - From 2015 - 2021, it experienced rapid development, with the issuance scale growing from $188.5 billion to $499.4 billion. The proportion of government bonds increased, mainly due to the growth of Hong Kong government retail bonds. US dollar bonds also grew rapidly because of the relaxation of overseas debt issuance regulations by the mainland [3][16]. - Since 2022, the total market has been in a stable development stage, but the internal structure has changed. The scale of US dollar bonds has decreased significantly due to tightened mainland regulations and the Fed's interest - rate hikes, while RMB bonds have developed rapidly due to China's loose monetary environment and central government policies [4][17]. 3.1.2 Outstanding Structure Characteristics: Chinese Issuers Account for 80%, and the Financial Industry Dominates - As of the end of 2024, the outstanding scales of Hong Kong dollar bonds, offshore RMB bonds, and G3 currency bonds in the Hong Kong bond market were $195.5 billion, $173.2 billion, and $565.6 billion respectively, with corporate bonds accounting for over 70% in each category [24]. - Currently, the total outstanding bond scale in the Hong Kong market is about $1.05 trillion. About 80% of the issuers are from China, about 65% of the remaining maturities are within 3 years, the financial industry accounts for half of the market, and the currency is mainly US dollars [4][25]. 3.2 Hong Kong Bond Market Liquidity and Investor Participation - In terms of liquidity, before the end of 2020, the average daily trading volume of bonds托管 and settled by the CMU system was stable at around HK$5 billion. Since 2021, the launch of the "Southbound Connect" and the increase in the issuance of RMB bonds have promoted the trading volume to increase to HK$20 - 25 billion, and the average daily turnover rate has risen from about 0.5% to around 1% [5][37]. - In terms of investor structure, asset management institutions, banks, and hedge funds hold 75%, 9%, and 7% of the outstanding bond balances with available holder data respectively. Holders are mainly distributed in the United States, Luxembourg, and China, and foreign - funded enterprises such as BlackRock, Nomura, and HSBC have relatively large management scales [5][41][44]. 3.3 Participation Opportunities in the Hong Kong Bond Market under the Expansion of the Bond "Southbound Connect" Mechanism 3.3.1 Chinese - funded Overseas Bonds: There are Obvious Excess Spreads, with Priority Focused on - Dim sum bonds: There are opportunities for spread compression in various types of urban investment bonds and high - grade industrial bonds. The outstanding dim sum bonds in the Hong Kong market are 1,376, with a balance of about 1.47 trillion yuan. The excess spreads of high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds are mostly between 100 - 150BP, and the spreads of low - grade urban investment bonds are mostly between 200 - 400BP [50]. - Chinese - funded US dollar bonds: The excess spreads of all varieties compared with domestic bonds are over 200BP. There are 1,066 outstanding Chinese - funded US dollar bonds in the Hong Kong market, with a balance of about $352.7 billion. The excess spreads of high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds are mostly between 200 - 300BP, and those of low - grade bonds are over 300BP [53]. - Sub - varieties investment suggestions: For urban investment overseas bonds, select bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, a yield of over 4%, a subject rating of AA+ or above, and a bond balance of over 300 million yuan/dollars. For industrial overseas bonds, focus on central and state - owned enterprise bonds, and be cautious about the real - estate industry. For financial overseas bonds, pay attention to the overseas bonds of industries such as banks and AMCs [9][57][58]. 3.3.2 Overseas Bonds of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Foreign - funded Enterprises: Focus on High - Quality Entities with Large Outstanding Scales and High Coupons - Consider overseas bonds issued by Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and foreign - funded enterprises with large outstanding scales and high coupon yields, such as Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation Limited, Hong Kong Airport Authority, and Qatar Petroleum. These bonds generally have an average yield or coupon rate of over 3% and have certain allocation value. However, credit research and risk screening of the issuers are required before investment [6][10][62].