GF SECURITIES·2026-01-20 12:08Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - In December 2025, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 0.9%, with a total of 4.5 trillion yuan, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to November 2025. Excluding automobiles, the total was 4.0 trillion yuan, growing by 1.7% year-on-year [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption sectors for the upcoming Spring Festival opportunities [5] - The report suggests a shift in retail industry logic from "adjusting input" to "adjusting output," with a focus on improving same-store sales and customer flow, which will enhance profit elasticity as the share of high-margin private brands increases [5] Summary by Sections Retail Sector Performance - In December 2025, retail sales of goods reached 3.9 trillion yuan, growing by 0.7% year-on-year, while catering revenue was 0.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [5] - The growth rates for various categories in December included: - Grain and oil food retail sales grew by 3.9% - Beverage retail sales grew by 1.7% - Tobacco and alcohol retail sales declined by 2.9% [5] - In the optional consumer goods category, cosmetics and gold and silver jewelry retail sales grew by 8.8% and 5.9%, respectively [5] E-commerce Insights - The e-commerce penetration rate slightly decreased, with online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13.1 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. The penetration rate was 26.1%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [5] - For the year, the growth rates for e-commerce categories were: food (14.5%), clothing (1.9%), and daily necessities (4.1%) [5] Investment Recommendations - Retail: Focus on companies like Bubugao, Huijia Times, Yonghui Supermarket, and Chongqing Department Store [5] - Cosmetics: Prefer high-end brand assets and consider low-positioned stocks like Maogeping and Yixian E-commerce [5] - Jewelry: Anticipate strong sales during the traditional gold sales peak in Q1, with recommendations for Laopu Gold and Mankalon [5] - Tourism: Focus on winter sports themes and the Spring Festival market, with recommendations for Changbai Mountain and Huangshan Tourism [5] - Education: Highlight opportunities in undervalued vocational education stocks like China Oriental Education and Action Education [5]