转债事件点评：躁动行情换挡，聚焦业绩成色

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market has positive support overall, but short - term rhythm and structural optimization need attention. It is recommended to optimize positions using market fluctuations and focus on performance and prosperity [2][4]. - The strong start - up of the convertible bond market in early 2026 is due to the resonance of macro - economic improvement and capital return. The regulatory move to cool the market will lead the bullish market into a more stable second half [4][9]. - With the release of annual report pre - announcements, the performance of underlying stocks will be an important basis for the differentiation of convertible bond issues. It is advisable to select convertible bonds of underlying stocks with high - certainty performance growth in Q1 2026 [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Strategy - In the past week (January 12 - 16, 2026), the A - share market reached a new high and then pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index had a rare "17 - consecutive - positive" start on January 12, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reaching 3.64 trillion yuan, a record high. However, after reaching a peak trading volume of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, the market declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% for the week. Sectors such as electronics, computers, power equipment and new energy, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while national defense and military industry, coal, real estate, and banking sectors led the losses. Small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks [6]. - The convertible bond market rose against the trend, and its valuation continued to recover. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08% for the week, and the equal - weighted convertible bond index rose 1.45%, slightly less than the 1.88% increase of the equal - weighted index of underlying stocks of convertible bonds. Various convertible bond market indices generally rose, with high - price and low - premium convertible bonds and small - cap convertible bonds performing relatively better, while the large - cap convertible bond index, double - low index, and low - price index performed relatively poorly [6]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The strong start of the convertible bond market in early 2026 is due to the resonance of macro - economic improvement and capital return. The macro - economy shows positive signals, including the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion range, continuous improvement of price indicators such as CPI and PPI, and a general rise in commodity prices. The RMB exchange rate is strengthening, and the central bank indicates that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. At the beginning of the year, institutional funds such as public funds and insurance funds are in the layout window, and the risk appetite of trading - type funds has increased, with the margin trading balance continuously hitting new highs [4][9]. - To cool the market and prevent leverage risks, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges raised the margin ratio for new margin trading contracts from 80% to 100% starting from January 19, 2026. This measure, implemented in a "new - old separation" way, aims to suppress excessive speculation. In the short term, it may cause market fluctuations and investment hotspot differentiation, but in the long term, it helps the capital market to develop steadily [4][9]. - The convertible bond market still has positive support. With the continuous release of policy dividends, moderate recovery of corporate profits, and strong demand for convertible bonds from "fixed - income +" funds in the context of the "asset shortage", the convertible bond market is expected to perform steadily in the volatile market. Since early 2026, the median price of convertible bonds has risen from 134 yuan to 139 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate has increased from 33% to 34%. The new bond market has been booming. However, there are two core risks: the valuation correction caused by the cooling of the equity market and the valuation decline risk of convertible bonds approaching the call - trigger condition [4][10]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the A - share market may face short - term shocks due to factors such as policy regulation and seasonal capital flow. Given the current high - price and high - valuation situation in the convertible bond market, market fluctuations may increase. It is recommended to re - balance positions and avoid aggressive chasing [4][10][11]. - With the intensive release of annual report pre - announcements, the performance of underlying stocks will be an important basis for the differentiation of convertible bond issues. It is recommended to select convertible bonds of underlying stocks with high - certainty performance growth in Q1 2026, including those in the AI computing power and semiconductor industries, non - ferrous metals and some chemical industries, and the energy storage industry chain [4][11].