证券研究报告、晨会聚焦：地产由子沛：美国次贷危机下的房地产市场-20260120

Core Insights - The report discusses the causes of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, highlighting factors such as the issuance of subprime loans due to low interest rates, rapid home price increases, and the role of financial innovation in spreading debt through securitization [3] - It outlines the U.S. government's response to the crisis, emphasizing the effectiveness of fiscal policies over traditional monetary policies, and the shift in leverage from households to the government [3] - The report indicates that U.S. housing prices are expected to stabilize and recover over time, with a projected timeline of approximately 5-10 years for full recovery from the crisis [3] Summary by Sections Causes of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis - The crisis was driven by increased household leverage due to low interest rates, rapid home price appreciation beyond actual value, speculative behavior in certain cities, and the impact of rising interest rates that burst the housing bubble [3] Government Response - Traditional monetary policy measures, such as interest rate cuts, were less effective compared to substantial fiscal policies that directly stimulated demand and unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing (QE) that intervened in troubled assets [3] Housing Market Recovery - Long-term interest rates in the U.S. are on a downward trend, providing support for housing prices. The report notes that when the rental-to-price ratio exceeds the mortgage rate, housing price growth is expected to stabilize, with a recovery timeline of about 4.5 years post-crisis [3]