热卷日报：震荡走弱-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on hot-rolled coils [6] Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. The weekly环比apparent consumption has rebounded, and the year-on-year performance is still strong. The demand in the off-season has strong resilience. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high and there is some pressure, it has been continuously de-stocked recently. If this trend continues, the pressure will be relieved. The 05 contract of hot-rolled coils decreased in position and volume today, and there is still a possibility of further weakening. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low point [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Price: On Tuesday, the position of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 15,864 lots, and the trading volume was 471,822 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,275 yuan, and the high was 3,307 yuan. It decreased in position and price during the day, breaking below the 5-day and 60-day moving averages, and closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan or 0.97% [1] - Spot Price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 4 yuan, close to parity [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it decreased by 118,300 tons. Production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, some steel mills allocating molten iron from building materials to plates, and the end of annual maintenance in steel mills with increased resumption of production. The follow-up increase in supply needs to be observed [4] - Demand: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption rebounded significantly this week, and year-on-year, it increased by 5,100 tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that demand still has resilience [4] - Inventory: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be de-stocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If the de-stocking trend can continue, the pressure on prices will decrease [4] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factors Analysis - Bullish Factors: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - Bearish Factors: The resumption of production in steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]