国投期货能源日报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ [2] Core Views - The main tone of the crude oil market is a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand. The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited unless there is a significant disruption in oil supply due to conflicts [3]. - The fuel oil market is still dominated by geopolitical factors. High-sulfur fuel oil is affected by geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran tension, and its near-term prices are relatively strong. Low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to the marginal increase in supply, but it is supported by the upward movement of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads [4]. - The asphalt market follows the trend of crude oil, but its price fluctuations are relatively limited. The market is in a range-bound pattern, and the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump's administration postponed military action against Iran, causing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices to partially reverse. The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited, and the market is mainly under pressure due to loose supply and demand [3]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is geopolitically driven. High-sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten if Iranian exports are blocked, and the US high-sulfur market is suppressed by increased imports of Venezuelan raw materials. In the medium term, supply is expected to be loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil is supported by winter demand, but supply pressure is emerging as overseas refineries increase production. The absolute price of fuel oil follows crude oil, with high-sulfur being stronger in the near term and low-sulfur under pressure [4]. Asphalt - The asphalt market follows the trend of crude oil, but its price fluctuations are relatively limited. The market is in a range-bound pattern after factoring in the expected increase in costs due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China. The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored [5].