2026年投资展望系列之十四：黄金，乘风破浪

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have surged significantly from 2023 to 2025, with a total increase of approximately 64.56% in 2025, reaching around $4,300 per ounce[37] - The expected gold price increase for 2026 is projected to be between 10% and 35%, influenced by factors such as interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties[6] - Historical data indicates that gold prices typically rise in anticipation of interest rate cuts, with an average increase of about 13.7% in the 180 days following such announcements[11] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, with market predictions of two rate cuts totaling approximately 45 basis points, bringing rates down to around 3.2%[2] - The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve indicates only one rate cut of 25 basis points is anticipated, reflecting internal disagreements on economic outlook among committee members[2] - Changes in Federal Reserve leadership may significantly impact interest rate expectations, with a tendency towards more dovish candidates likely to support further rate cuts[48] Group 3: Dollar Credit Concerns - The long-term credit stability of the US dollar is under threat, with a potential continued decline in the dollar index expected in 2026, following a 9% drop in 2025[52] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising fiscal deficits are contributing to fears regarding the sustainability of US debt and the dollar's creditworthiness[3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with gold becoming the largest reserve asset for many, surpassing US Treasury bonds for the first time in nearly 30 years[3]