GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-01-20 14:01Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the listed brokerage firms [5][30]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant improvement in the performance of listed brokerages, with a projected year-on-year increase of 46.4% in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, reaching 216.4 billion yuan [5][8]. - The growth is primarily driven by active trading and a low base effect, with expected adjusted operating revenue rising by 34.1% to 565.7 billion yuan [5][9]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from both the influx of long-term capital and improved performance, particularly in retail and wealth management segments [5][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Outlook - The report forecasts a 46.4% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, with adjusted operating revenue expected to rise by 34.1% to 565.7 billion yuan [8][9]. 2. Business Segments - Retail and Proprietary Business: These are identified as the main drivers of performance growth, with retail business expected to contribute significantly due to increased trading activity [10][11]. - Brokerage Business: Anticipated revenue growth of 49% in 2025, driven by a daily average trading volume of 20,576 billion yuan, a 70% increase year-on-year [11][12]. - Investment Banking: Projected revenue growth of 12% for 2025, supported by a recovery in equity financing, with IPO underwriting expected to reach 131.8 billion yuan, a 96% increase [15][29]. - Asset Management: Expected to see a modest revenue increase of 4% in 2025, with total asset management scale slightly improving [19][29]. - Credit Business: Anticipated significant improvement in interest income, projected to grow by 57% due to increased margin trading balances [22][29]. - Proprietary Trading: Expected revenue growth of 35% in 2025, benefiting from improved investment yields [27][29]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in leading brokerage firms that will benefit from the influx of incremental capital into the market, specifically highlighting Huatai Securities and CICC as top picks [29][30].