东吴证券晨会纪要2026-01-21-20260121

Macro Strategy - The economic growth target of 5% for the year was successfully achieved, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8%, indicating a narrowing decline in the GDP deflator index from -1.1% to -0.7% [1][18] - Economic growth was primarily driven by exports and services, with service sector GDP growth at 5.4% and export growth at 6.1%, while fixed asset investment declined by 3.8% [1][18] - Q4 prices showed signs of recovery but remained weak, with actual GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8% [1][18] Industry Insights - The aerospace sector is highlighted as a long-term strategic focus under the 15th Five-Year Plan, with continued attention on semiconductor equipment, particularly in advanced processes and domestic replacements [5] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, supported by policy and performance metrics [24] - The semiconductor equipment ETF is recommended as a key investment target due to the clear expansion signals from TSMC [5][24] Company Recommendations - Shouhua Gas (300483): Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.02/3.16/5.46 billion yuan, with a significant growth rate of 114%/210%/73%, and a "buy" rating is assigned [12] - Keda Technology (002518): Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 6.4/11.2/15.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 63%/74%/36%, maintaining a "buy" rating [13] - Hunan YN (301358): The company has shown a clear profit turning point with revised profit expectations of 12.8/35.0/47.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to a "buy" rating [14] - Alibaba-W (09988.HK): The company is expected to maintain high growth in its cloud business, with projected non-GAAP net profits for FY2026/FY2027/FY2028 at 101,525/141,564/184,647 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [16] - China Taiping (00966.HK): The company is projected to see a significant increase in net profits for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating based on its low valuation metrics [17]