格林大华期货早盘提示-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy has passed its peak and started to decline due to continuous wrong policies in the US [4] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and its global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summary by Relevant Content Global Economic and Financial Information - The IMF predicts that global economic growth will stabilize at 3.3% and 3.2% in the current and next years, with the forecast for the current year being revised up by 0.2 percentage points compared to the October estimate last year, mainly driven by the US and China [1] - If Trump appoints a Fed chair seen as overly compliant, the bond market will punish the US, and precious metals are a good hedge against political volatility [1] - The NYSE is developing a blockchain - based tokenized securities trading platform to address the "T + 1" settlement issues [1] - The shortage of high - end storage chips caused by AI is "unprecedented", impacting traditional consumer electronics shipments, and Micron has stopped producing consumer - grade memory brands [1] - Samsung and SK Hynix are reducing NAND wafer production, with the two companies accounting for over 60% of the global NAND flash market [1] - Google's business of selling the Gemini AI model has surged, with API calls exceeding 85 billion and 8 million enterprise subscribers, which is expected to boost Google Cloud server sales [1] - The global bond market has faced large - scale selling due to concerns about the US fiscal deficit, potential European bond sales, and Japanese investor withdrawals [1] - The probability of Rieder from BlackRock being nominated as Fed chair has increased significantly due to his views on interest rates and deficit tolerance [1] Global Economic Logic - US actions such as seizing Venezuelan oil, imposing tariffs on European countries, and investigating the Fed chair have created huge uncertainties in the global political order and economy [2] - The Fed is expected to face uncertainties from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and buy $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, expanding its balance sheet [2] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs of the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US will adjust its economic relations with China and focus on revitalizing its own economy [2] - Consumer K - shaped differentiation in the US is intensifying, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while low - and middle - income families are cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield has risen to 2.18% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years [2] - TSMC's capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a significant increase of 27% - 37%, indicating the continued AI boom [2]