渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.21）-20260121

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for December 2025 shows a stable overall economy with a GDP growth of 4.5% year-on-year, matching expectations, but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter [2] - The industrial output value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while retail sales growth was lower at 0.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a decline of 3.8% year-on-year, indicating a weakening investment environment [2] - The economic growth pattern for 2025 indicates a stronger supply than demand, with external demand outpacing internal demand, which is expected to continue into 2026 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see continued structural support from net exports, with potential stabilization in government-led investment projects [2] Production Structure - The industrial output growth in December 2025 showed a slight recovery, with high-tech manufacturing outpacing overall growth, indicating an optimization in production structure [3] - The production capacity utilization and sales rates reached their highest levels of the year, suggesting an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth in December 2025 was lower than expected, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption [3] - The decline in disposable income growth indicates a constraint on consumer spending capacity, although new policies are expected to support consumption in early 2026 [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where investment growth rates fell significantly [4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize due to government initiatives, while real estate investment continues to struggle with a year-on-year decline of 35.8% [5] Fixed Income Research - Credit bond issuance increased, with a downward trend in overall interest rates, indicating a favorable environment for credit bonds despite a reduction in net financing [6] - The credit spread for various bond types is at historical lows, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for credit bonds [6][8] Metal Industry Research - The steel industry is facing limited short-term demand pressure, with expectations of price stabilization due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment [9] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable despite weak supply dynamics, supported by positive long-term demand forecasts [10] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to improve due to demand from electric vehicles and high-pressure power grids, despite current oversupply issues [11] - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and mixed U.S. economic data, with long-term demand expected to rise [12]