Report's Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Global market risk appetite has weakened, leading to a decline in the US dollar and a stock - bond - exchange triple - kill in the US. Geopolitical risks, such as the issue of Greenland acquisition, are the main drivers of market fluctuations, while the fundamentals and changes in interest - rate cut expectations remain relatively stable [2][15]. - In the stock market, there is a clear seesaw effect between growth stocks and dividend stocks, and the market rotation speed has accelerated. It is not yet possible to determine the end of the spring rally, and attention should be focused on the technological industry trends and the intensity of the Two Sessions' policies [3][23]. - In the commodity market, different commodities show different trends. For example, gold is strong, while some metals and agricultural products are under pressure. The prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy regulations, and geopolitical risks [4][11][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Poland's central bank plans to increase its gold reserves by up to 150 tons, aiming to rank among the top 10 countries with the largest gold reserves globally. A Danish pension fund will exit the US Treasury market. Gold has risen by about 2% and reached a new high. The market's risk aversion has increased, and the distrust of the US dollar has grown, which supports the price of gold. The silver is weaker than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump stated that if the Supreme Court restricts the federal government's tariff policy, he can use other means. His intention regarding Greenland has not changed, which has led to a weakening of global market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [12][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Netflix's Q4 performance was excellent, but its Q1 guidance was disappointing. Geopolitical risks have continued to escalate during the long weekend, and the trade dispute between the US and Europe over Greenland has intensified, leading to a significant decline in market risk appetite. The performance of the stock market has been suppressed, and the three major US stock indexes have fallen by more than 2%. It is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate at a high level during the earnings season [17][19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The latest LPR quotes remained unchanged. The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a package of five fiscal - financial policies to promote domestic demand. The stock market continued to adjust, with a clear seesaw effect between growth stocks and dividend stocks. It is not yet possible to determine the end of the spring rally, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 1 - month LPR has remained stable for eight consecutive months. The central bank conducted a 324 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan on the same day. The stock market's upward momentum is weak, and the trading volume of treasury bond futures has increased. The short - term rebound of treasury bond futures is expected to continue, but the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish. It is recommended to short after the market's upward momentum fades [25][26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market has shown mixed trends. Coke producers have initiated the first round of price increases, which are still in the negotiation stage. The supply is relatively stable, while the downstream steel and coke enterprises are actively restocking. The inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short term, the spot price is supported by the downstream restocking sentiment, but the upward momentum of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [28][29]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Two departments have issued measures to support urban renewal. A steel group has completed a strategic acquisition to build a high - end special - steel production base. Steel prices have continued to decline, and the fundamentals of finished products have faced increasing pressure in January. The seasonal decline in demand is expected to be more obvious, and the export has also weakened marginally. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy before the Spring Festival and hedge inventory when the price rebounds [30][31][32]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 111.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Brazil's soybean exports in the first three weeks of January increased by 145% compared to the same period last year. The prices of domestic and foreign futures have remained weak. Although the soybean imports in the first quarter are expected to be at a low level, the current inventory is at a historical high, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign futures will remain weak under the condition of a bumper harvest in South America [33][34][36]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% month - on - month. The palm oil price is expected to be supported in the short term due to its cost - effectiveness and the active purchasing attitude of countries such as India. However, the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 8800 - 8900 yuan level [38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of January increased by 39% compared to the average daily exports in January of the previous year. India may raise the minimum selling price of sugar. China's imports of syrup and premixed powder in December 2025 decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure during the peak production period, and the demand during the pre - Spring Festival stocking period is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downward space is limited [39][40][42]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Ghana is promoting the construction of its first large - scale alumina refinery. The inventory of alumina enterprises has increased, and the futures price is under pressure [43]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In December 2025, China's lithium ore imports increased by 8.1% month - on - month, and lithium carbonate imports decreased by 14% year - on - year. The price of lithium carbonate has reached the daily limit, which is affected by factors such as mine - end disturbances and demand support. In the short term, it may continue to reduce inventory. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long after the position and volatility stabilize [44][45][46]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Six departments have issued a management method for the recycling of new - energy vehicle waste power batteries. The prices of domestic and foreign lead have oscillated downward. The macro - level disturbances have increased, and the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The social inventory is expected to continue to rise, which will suppress the lead price. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [47][48][49]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In December 2025, China's galvanized sheet exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while zinc concentrate imports decreased month - on - month. The zinc price has oscillated weakly, affected by macro - level disturbances. The fundamentals of LME zinc have weakened, and the social inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be vigilant against geopolitical risks [50][51][53]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A company has made progress in high - speed copper cable business. Peru's copper production in November 2025 decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. China's scrap - copper imports in December 2025 increased month - on - month. The short - term macro - level negative factors have relatively increased, and the global visible inventory has risen, which will suppress the copper price. It is expected that the copper price will change from a strong rise to a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [54][55][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The discount of LME tin has reached 108.01 US dollars per ton. The inventories of both the SHFE and LME have increased significantly. The processing fees of smelters have risen, and the demand remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [58]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Norway's oil production in December was 1.962 million barrels per day. The oil price has oscillated and rebounded, supported by concerns about geopolitical uncertainties. The market lacks new drivers in the short term, and the oil price is expected to oscillate [59][60]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - A company's PP devices have stopped for maintenance. An extreme cold wave warning has been issued in the US, which has raised concerns about the short - term supply and exports of LPG. The outer - market price is expected to be strong in the near term, and the inner - market price may follow passively [61][62]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On January 20, the closing price of CEA was 73 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9.88% from the previous day. After the 2024 compliance period, the market trading activity has cooled down significantly. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to buy on dips if there is demand [62][63]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of polyethylene has decreased month - on - month, but the LLDPE inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. The LLDPE price has a large callback space, and the 05 - contract price is expected to decline to the 6550 - 6600 yuan level [64][66]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot market negotiation was light in the afternoon. The PTA futures price has increased with increased positions. The short - term upward space is limited due to factors such as the relatively abundant supply of PX and the weak speculative demand of downstream industries. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [67][68][69].
全球市场风险偏好走弱
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2026-01-21 00:43