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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum: Supply disruptions and rising geopolitical risks will cause platinum to continue to fluctuate. In the short term, the platinum price may continue to fluctuate. In the future, the supply side has risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion stage. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate strongly [3]. - Palladium: Tariff expectations and rising geopolitical risks will cause palladium to continue to fluctuate. In the short term, the palladium price may maintain a wide - range fluctuation. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage supports the price, and the palladium price has a certain bottom support [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - Market Situation: As of January 20, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 619.35 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 0.43% [2]. - Main Logic: South African floods may affect production and supply. Geopolitical and trade frictions are heating up, and the EU may counter Trump's tariff threat. The nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations for platinum and palladium are also key factors. In the future, South Africa still has power supply and extreme weather risks on the supply side, and on the demand side, the automotive catalyst demand is stable, the hydrogen energy industry is a growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding [3]. - Outlook: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive, so the platinum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Palladium - Market Situation: As of January 20, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 490 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 1.97% [2]. - Main Logic: The expectation of a 50% tariff on palladium in the US was not fulfilled, and the price corrected. The US investigation report on Russian palladium has not been released, and the spot shortage supports the price. In the long - term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, but in the short - term, the spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle provides bottom support [4]. - Outlook: The short - term spot shortage supports the palladium price, but in the medium - and long - term, it is restricted by weak fundamentals and low investment attributes, so the palladium price is expected to fluctuate [4]. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34% [50]. - Plate Index: The non - ferrous metal index on January 20, 2026, was 2793.66, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a 5 - day decline of 2.04%, a 1 - month increase of 8.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.01% [52].