中国期货每日简报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 20, most equity index futures declined, most CGB futures rose, and most commodities increased, with Lithium Carbonate, Silver, and Tin leading the gains [10][11][12]. - The price of Lithium Carbonate is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to bargain - hunting long opportunities driven by sentiment fluctuations [37][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On January 20, in equity index futures, IC dropped 1.0% and IH dropped 0.5%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.52% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Lithium Carbonate (up 9.0% with 1.0% month - on - month open interest increase), Silver (up 3.6% with 3.7% month - on - month open interest decrease), and Tin (up 3.1% with 9.7% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were Coking Coal (down 4.5% with 6.0% month - on - month open interest increase), Coke (down 3.5% with 2.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and Glass (down 3.1% with 0.5% month - on - month open interest decrease) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Drop - Coking Coal: On January 20, it fell 4.5% to 1,124 yuan/ton. Supply is stable after the resumption of production in major coal - producing areas, and Mongolia coal imports have rebounded. Coke output has edged down, but coking enterprises' winter stockpiling has depleted upstream mine inventories. However, mid - and downstream enterprises have completed winter stockpiling, cooling the spot market [18][20][21]. - Coke: On January 20, it dropped 3.5% to 1,673 yuan/ton. The first - round price increase application by coking enterprises has not been responded to by steel mills, and the coking industry's losses are deepening. Steel mills' hot metal output has slightly declined, but their inventories are increasing steadily. Coking enterprises' shipments have improved [26][27][28]. 3.1.3 Daily Raise - Lithium Carbonate: On January 20, it rose 9.0% to 160,500 yuan/ton. The market trend is dominated by capital sentiment and policy changes. The adjustment of export tax rebate policies has strengthened short - term demand expectations. There are risks of phased disruptions to supply, and the marginal demand has weakened slightly but with good long - term expectations. Inventory has shifted from de - stocking to accumulation. Overall, the price is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern [33][34][36]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The NDRC will implement a more pro - active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy. The MOF stated that in 2026, the fiscal expenditure intensity will be maintained at an increasing level, and in 2025, the newly - added government debt scale reached 11.86 trillion yuan, a year - on - year rise of 2.9 trillion yuan [43][44][45]. 3.2.2 Industry News - The NDRC will research and formulate regulations for the development of a unified national market and release three key lists to clarify local governments' actions in promoting economic development [48].