轻工出口链行业专题：出口链行业专题一：库存周期复盘与景气度线索

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the durable consumer goods export chain industry [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale and retail inventory cycles are misaligned, and interest rate cuts are expected to drive demand resonance [1]. - The report highlights that the excess profits of leading companies in the export chain often stem from precise positioning in niche markets, cost control know-how, and differentiated product and channel operational capabilities [2]. - The improvement in home furnishing demand is anticipated to be driven by real estate recovery, accelerated retail sales, and inventory replenishment [16]. Summary by Sections Inventory Cycle Analysis - The inventory cycle is defined by the relationship between inventory/sales growth rates and the absolute value of inventory year-on-year [4]. - Retailers are in a passive destocking phase from April 2025 to July 2025, while wholesalers are in an active restocking phase from October 2024 to August 2025 [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Jiangxin Home, Gongchuang Lawn, Zhongxin Co., Gujia Home, Yingke Medical, Songlin Technology, Jianlin Home, Zhejiang Natural, and Yiyi Co. [2][26]. - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for these companies, indicating a consistent "Overweight" rating across the board [27]. Market Trends - The report notes that the inventory turnover ratios for furniture brands are at historically low levels, aligning with the trend of retailers reducing inventory since May 2023 [12][14]. - Home Depot's inventory turnover ratio has returned to historical norms, but further replenishment intentions are constrained by demand pressures [15].