中信期货晨报：国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，碳酸锂涨停-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance, showing a structural differentiation. The lithium carbonate futures limit - up became the market focus, and the precious metals sector was strong, while the coking coal and coke futures led the decline, and most energy - chemical products fell. The overall market fluctuations revolved around the reconstruction of the supply - demand of sub - industries and macro - risk sentiment [14]. - The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool, consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, industrial production rebounded unexpectedly, and the Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with the interest - rate cut expectation postponed to June [14]. - In China, policies focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, corporate loans and bond financing in social financing data were stronger than seasonal, but real estate and infrastructure were weak due to seasonality, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - In the short term, there is a risk of continued adjustment of risk assets; in the medium term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - Stock Index Futures: On January 20, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4708.6, with a daily decline of 0.5%, a weekly decline of 0.31%, and a monthly increase of 2.37%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had different price changes and fluctuations [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all showed certain price increases and fluctuations on January 20, 2026 [2]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index was 99.0423, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 63 pips [2]. - Interest Rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 3.42 bp, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield decreased by 0.31 bp [2]. 3.2 Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 20, 2026, different industries had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a monthly increase of 12.65%, while the defense and military industry had a daily decline of 3.21% [5]. 3.3 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - On January 16, 2026, overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, NYMEX natural gas had a monthly decline of 16.22%, and COMEX silver had a monthly increase of 26.72% [8]. 3.4 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - Various domestic commodities such as crude oil, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemical products, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations on January 20, 2026. For example, lithium carbonate had a daily increase of 8.93% and a monthly increase of 31.86% [11]. 3.5 Macro - Essentials - Today's Market: The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance. The rise of lithium carbonate was driven by the rise of energy - storage demand and the reversal of the supply - demand pattern, and precious metals were supported by geopolitical risks [14]. - Overseas Macro: The US economy expanded moderately, inflation cooled, consumption was "K - shaped", industrial production rebounded, and the Fed postponed the interest - rate cut expectation to June [14]. - Domestic Macro: Chinese policies focused on new fields, exports were resilient, social financing data showed strong corporate financing, but real estate and infrastructure were weak, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - Asset Views: The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in January, and the first interest - rate cut is postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while mid - term long positions in some assets are recommended [14]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - Financial: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, waiting for incremental funds; stock index options and treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [15]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [15]. - Shipping: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile, focusing on factors such as shipping company's resumption of flights and cargo volume [15]. - Black Building Materials: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [15]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Most basic metals are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [15]. - Energy and Chemicals: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies [18]. - Agriculture: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise or decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policies [18].