Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has fluctuated. The bullish sentiment in commodities is expected to continue, mainly centered around precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are more affected by the spill - over of market sentiment, and the scope of sentiment radiation may shrink in the short term [8]. - The prices of steel products are in a weak oscillation at the bottom. The supply of hot - rolled coils may contract in the short term, and the overall supply - demand of rebar is neutral. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [2]. - The price of iron ore may adjust at a high level and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and molten iron production rhythm [5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are mainly affected by market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [8][9]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and high - volatility risks [14]. - The price of industrial silicon may oscillate repeatedly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction by large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [17]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and new changes in exchange risk - control measures [20]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate widely, and the soda ash market will continue to be weakly sorted out. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand situation of both [23][25]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - Market Quotes: The total price of steel is 3170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract is 3276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts are 190,202 tons, a decrease of 4160 tons compared with the previous period. The main contract position is 1.4861 million lots, a decrease of 15,864 lots compared with the previous period [2]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The steel price is in a weak oscillation at the bottom. The explosion accident at Baogang may lead to a short - term decline in the start - up rate of steel mills in some areas and support the price of hot - rolled coils. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction and policies [2]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 789.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.57% (- 4.50). The position changed by - 29,929 lots to 586,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore is 944,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port is 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.48 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.01% [4]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continues to decline, the molten iron output decreases, and the port inventory accumulates. The iron ore price may adjust at a high level and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and molten iron production rhythm [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Market Quotes: On January 20, the main ferromanganese contract (SM603) continued to fall, closing at 5760 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) rebounded after reaching the bottom, closing at 5552 yuan/ton [7]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The bullish sentiment in commodities will continue, but the main line is still precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Quotes: On January 20, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) fell 4.30%, closing at 1124.0 yuan/ton. The main coke contract (J2605) fell 2.76%, closing at 1673.5 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The prices of coking coal and coke oscillated and fell last week, mainly due to the decline in market sentiment. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to short - term market sentiment and high - volatility risks [13][14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% (- 100). The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 50,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% (+ 195) [16][18]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The price of industrial silicon may oscillate repeatedly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction by large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises. The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and new changes in exchange risk - control measures [17][20]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main glass contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, a decrease of 1.31% (- 14). The main soda ash contract closed at 1177 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% (- 15) [22][24]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The glass market is expected to oscillate widely, and the soda ash market will continue to be weakly sorted out. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand situation of both [23][25].
黑色建材日报-20260121
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-21 01:01