有色金属日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's expectation of imposing tariffs on key minerals weakens, and the US plans to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, causing the equity market to weaken and market sentiment to cool. In the copper industry, the supply of copper mines remains tight, the LME market spot is relatively strong but North American inventories are increasing marginally, and the supply of refined copper is relatively surplus. Therefore, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [3][4]. - Tensions between Europe and the US have weakened market sentiment. However, the high premium of US aluminum spot and the low global LME aluminum inventory at multi - year lows limit the downward space of aluminum prices. Although high prices still affect domestic downstream demand, as prices decline, downstream inventory replenishment is expected to increase, and with the "rush to export" expectation in the photovoltaic industry, aluminum prices still have support in the short term [4][5]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and supply - side disturbances continue, providing strong price support. However, demand is relatively average, so prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [8][9]. - The visible inventory of lead concentrates is declining, the operating rate of primary lead remains high and is further slightly adjusted upwards, the raw material inventory of the secondary lead end is rising, and the weekly operating rate of secondary lead is marginally adjusted upwards. The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises is marginally improving, and the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Lead prices have given back some gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector fades, but the non - ferrous sector is still bullish in the medium term during the double - loose cycle, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11][12][13]. - The port inventory of zinc ore has slightly declined, and the imported TC of zinc concentrates has slightly declined. Although the rise in zinc prices has slightly increased zinc smelting profits, the industrial situation has not significantly improved. The social inventory of zinc ingots has started to accumulate, and the Shanghai - London ratio has stagnated and declined. Zinc prices still have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. Zinc prices have given back some gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector fades, but the non - ferrous sector is still bullish in the double - loose cycle, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [14][15]. - The supply - demand situation of tin has marginally improved, but the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on prices. Coupled with the withdrawal of speculative funds, tin prices may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. [16][17][18] - Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The progress of mine type changes in two lithium mines in Jiangxi has been made, but the market is more worried about the reduction of mica ore mining due to compliance issues. The main contract of lithium carbonate hit the daily limit at the end of the session. The uncertainty of the mine end is strong in the short term, and the expectation of supply contraction has not been falsified. Market sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or make a light - position attempt [21][22]. - After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although the market's expectation of supply contraction policies is increasing, there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24][25]. - The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to remain tight, and market sentiment is optimistic. Stainless steel shows a trend of increasing volume and price. The supply of raw materials is restricted, the production scheduling of many mainstream steel mills has slowed down, and market arrivals are tight. Although price increases have stimulated some traders to stock up, end - users' acceptance of high prices is limited. In the short term, the market is expected to remain strong, and prices may show a high - level fluctuation pattern [27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Market Information: Overnight, European and American stock markets weakened, LME copper inventory increased significantly, and copper prices declined. LME copper 3M closed down 1.47% to $12,796/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 99,930 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium. The daily warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.4 to 148,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures, and the market trading sentiment was weak. The spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the futures, and trading was average. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was about 1,400 yuan/ton. The price difference between refined and scrap copper was 3,000 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month. In December 2025, the import volume of copper scrap increased year - on - year and month - on - month [3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The main contract of Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 98,000 - 101,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is expected to trade in the range of $12,500 - 13,000/ton [4]. Aluminum - Market Information: Market risk appetite weakened, and aluminum prices corrected. LME aluminum closed down 1.48% to $3,118/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,775 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum slightly increased to 699,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 140,000 tons. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots in three major regions increased month - on - month, and the inventory of aluminum rods slightly increased. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rebound, and market sentiment was cautious. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream purchasing sentiment weakened. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 483,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade in the range of 23,500 - 24,100 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is expected to trade in the range of $3,080 - 3,150/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The main AD2603 contract closed down 0.55% to 22,765 yuan/ton (as of 3 pm). The weighted contract position declined to 23,800 lots, and the trading volume was 11,800 lots, with increased trading volume. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.06 to 69,100 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,185 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly month - on - month. The average price of ADC12 in domestic mainstream regions decreased, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. Trading activity was still average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three major regions decreased by 0.01 to 43,100 tons [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [9]. Lead - Market Information: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.25% to 17,228 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 112,000 lots. As of 3 pm on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose 9.5 to $2,058/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 165,700 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,900 yuan/ton, the price difference between refined and scrap lead was 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton. The lead ingot futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 203,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 40,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.13 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 115.6 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the futures was 1.21, and the profit and loss of lead ingot imports was 106.78 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 29,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with January 15. According to the LME announcement, from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brand YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, the special high - purity zinc brands KZ - SHG99.995 and the KZ - LEAD brand lead produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the non - ferrous sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [12][13]. Zinc - Market Information: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.16% to 24,417 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 226,000 lots. As of 3 pm on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose 4.5 to $3,227/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 233,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,340 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 40 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 5 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 35 yuan/ton. The zinc ingot futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,400 tons, the domestic Shanghai region basis was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,500 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 41.66 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 4.06 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the futures was 1.092, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,034.38 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 112,100 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with January 15. According to the LME announcement, from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brand YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, the special high - purity zinc brands KZ - SHG99.995 and the KZ - LEAD brand lead produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Zinc prices still have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the non - ferrous sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [15]. Tin - Market Information: On January 20, tin prices stabilized and rebounded. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 399,000 yuan/ton, a 2.44% increase from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 461 tons from the previous day to 8,860 tons. In terms of supply, the smelting operating rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally stable at a high level. Yunnan was about 87.81%, basically unchanged and with normal production. Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, was accelerating, and the rise in tin prices increased the enthusiasm for resumption of production. In December, it was estimated that about 5,000 tons of tin ore would be imported, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan had been significantly alleviated compared with the previous period, with an expected increase in subsequent imports. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, there was insufficient upward momentum, and there were both constraints on the scrap end and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream. In the short term, supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, the sharp rise in Shanghai tin futures prices last week significantly suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. Currently, enterprises generally followed up with small amounts based on rigid demand, controlled inventory levels, and there was no obvious release of spot circulation. Under the high - premium pattern, market trading was light, and the operating rates of some processing enterprises decreased significantly. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday [16][17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to trade in the range of 360,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is expected to trade in the range of $47,000 - 51,000/ton [18]. Nickel - Market Information: On January 20, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 141,360 yuan/ton, a 0.67% decrease from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands varied. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 7,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices rose significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,028.5 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 1 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [19]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term price of Shanghai nickel is expected to trade in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is expected to trade in the range of $16,000 - 19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 152,431 yuan, a 5.52% increase from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,500 - 156,400 yuan, and the average price increased by 8,050 yuan (+5.56%) from the previous working day. The quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 146,200 - 153,200 yuan, and the average price increased by 5.31% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 160,500 yuan, an 8.99% increase from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan. According to customs data, in December, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a 9% increase from the previous month and a 14% decrease from the same period last