山金期货黑色板块日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the improvement in apparent demand provides some support for futures prices, and the central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. Technically, futures prices face pressure after a short - term downward breakthrough. For the iron ore sector, the improvement in steel apparent demand is mainly due to year - end rush construction, and the decline in iron ore demand and supply is limited. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices, and the upward trend may end, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Last week, rebar production decreased, overall inventory continued to decline, rebar apparent demand rebounded significantly, and the apparent demand of five major steel products rebounded while inventory decreased and production remained basically unchanged. The improvement in apparent demand may be due to year - end rush construction and may not be sustainable. Short - term steel mill production may continue to decline [2]. - Technical Analysis: Futures prices rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough and facing significant pressure [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions lightly, and add positions at low prices when futures prices fall to the lower edge of the oscillation range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - Data: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices declined to varying degrees. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, with a daily average pig iron output of 228.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.65%. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17%. Rebar production was 190.30 million tons, a decrease of 0.39%. Hot - rolled coil production was 308.36 million tons, an increase of 0.93%. The capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.99%, an increase of 1.08%. The operating rate was 72.97%. The five - major - product social inventory was 866.33 million tons, an increase of 0.13%. The rebar social inventory was 295.41 million tons, an increase of 5.23 million tons. The hot - rolled coil social inventory was 285.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.72%. The five - major - product steel mill inventory was 380.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.08% [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Demand: The overall output of five major steel products remained basically unchanged last week, and the apparent demand rebounded. The pig iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand is mainly due to year - end rush construction, and the decline in steel and pig iron output is limited. An accident at a rolling mill under Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand [4]. - Supply: Global shipments continued to decline, and the arrival volume decreased. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices [4]. - Technical Analysis: Futures prices broke through the recent oscillation range and rose strongly but adjusted significantly in the past two days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average and returning to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, where there may be some support, but the upward trend may end, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions and reduce or liquidate positions in time when the price rises in the future [4]. - Data: The settlement price of DCE iron ore futures and SGX iron ore futures declined. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with Australian shipments at 1440.1 million tons, a decrease of 13.22%, and Brazilian shipments at 480.1 million tons, a decrease of 25.80%. The arrival volume at northern six ports was 1442.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.79%. The average daily port clearance volume was 335.02 million tons, a decrease of 0.58%. The port inventory was 16555.1 million tons, an increase of 1.72% [4][5]. 3.3 Industry News - BHP's Pilbara iron ore production in Q4 2025 was 76.326 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.96% and a year - on - year increase of 4.26%. The total iron ore sales volume was 75.397 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.86%. The target guidance for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged at 258 - 269 million tons [7]. - Heavy pollution weather orange alerts were activated in Henan's Xuchang and Jiaozuo on January 20, 2026, and industrial enterprises are required to implement emission reduction measures [7]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. From January to December, the cumulative production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [7]. - On January 17, 2026, the first batch of 200,000 tons of high - grade iron ore from Guinea's Simandou project arrived at Majishan Port. The project's annual production capacity is 120 million tons, and the expected export volume in 2026 is 18 million tons [8].